Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 1: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
Players to Watch
Paris Saint GermainEstac TroyesParis Saint GermainEstac TroyesMatch preview
Paris Saint Germain host Estac Troyes on Ligue 1 Matchday 10
Paris Saint Germain welcome Estac Troyes to the Parc des Princes on Matchday 10 of Ligue 1 as the division's leaders. Luis Enrique's side sit first with 20 points from nine games, while Stéphane Dumont's visitors are 16th on eight points, 15 places and 12 points behind the hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Paris arrive having won their last 10 games. Over their latest five, they scored 20 goals and conceded four, with two clean sheets, and their most recent outing was a 6-0 victory away at Villarreal on 3 November.
Troyes have taken a different path. They lost three of their last five and won one, scoring three goals while failing to score in three of those games. Their most recent result was a 2-0 home win over Le Mans on 31 October, which followed a goalless draw at Toulouse.
Across their last 5 meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 4, Estac Troyes won 0, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Estac Troyes 1–3 Paris Saint Germain on 7 May 2023.
Paris have won all five of their latest games, scoring 20 goals, while Troyes have won one of their last five and scored just three times.
Troyes have scored two goals in their last five away games, failing to score in four of them, while Paris have won four of their last five at home.
Paris Saint Germain meet Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 20:05 UTC at Parc des Princes. Referee: Ruddy Buquet.
Team pages: Paris Saint Germain · Estac Troyes · Ligue 1
Sirius · Why these numbers
Paris Saint Germain 84% · Draw 11% · Estac Troyes 5%
A huge strength gap puts Paris Saint Germain clear — We give Paris Saint Germain 84% mainly because our strength rating has them 459 points higher, 2040 to 1581, with the usual home advantage adding to it. The draw sits at 11%, just under the usual 12% for a gap this size, because both sides' own recent games average 3.5 goals.
Why Paris Saint Germain at 84%?
Paris Saint Germain sit 459 points higher on our strength rating — 2040 to 1581. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.6% of 5,987 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 84–11–5.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 84% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 11% and Estac Troyes at 5%.
Why is the draw only 11%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 11.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 1.0 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Paris Saint Germain have averaged 23 percentage points more possession than Estac Troyes in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Paris Saint Germain have gained 86 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ligue 1 fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes team pages or the Ligue 1 page.