Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
Players to Watch
Le MansMonacoLe MansMonacoMatch preview
Le Mans seek a first win in four as Monaco visit on Ligue 1 matchday 10
Le Mans host Monaco at Stade Marie-Marvingt on matchday 10 of Ligue 1 with the two sides separated by ten places. Patrick Videira's team are 17th with seven points from nine games, while Filipe Luís's visitors sit seventh on 15, eight points clear.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Le Mans have lost three of their last five games, conceding ten goals and scoring four. Their latest outing was a 2-0 defeat away to Estac Troyes, and they failed to score in two of those five matches. Of their last five home games, they have drawn three, won one and lost one.
Monaco's recent record is more mixed: two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five, with seven goals scored and five conceded. They followed a 3-1 loss at Paris FC with a 2-0 home win over Nordsjælland, their latest game. Both sides have faced Lorient in that spell, Le Mans winning 2-1 at home and Monaco losing 1-0 away.
Le Mans have scored four goals in their last five games and conceded ten, whereas Monaco have scored seven and conceded five over the same period.
Le Mans have drawn three of their last five home games, while Monaco have lost two of their last five away.
Le Mans meet Monaco in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 16:15 UTC at Stade Marie-Marvingt. Referee: Bastien Dechepy.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Le Mans 23% · Draw 20% · Monaco 57%
Monaco's strength rating gives them a clear lead — Monaco sit 233 points higher on our strength rating, 1788 to 1556, which outweighs the usual home advantage Le Mans get, so we give Monaco 57%. The draw sits at 20%, close to the usual rate of about 21% for a gap this size, nudged down slightly because both sides' recent games average 2.9 goals.
Why Monaco at 57%?
Monaco sit 233 points higher on our strength rating — 1788 to 1556. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.5% of 7,223 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 22–19–59.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 20% and Le Mans at 23%.
Why is the draw only 20%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 20.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Monaco have averaged 7 percentage points more possession than Le Mans in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Le Mans are newly promoted — game 10 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Le Mans vs Monaco, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ligue 1 fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Le Mans and Monaco team pages or the Ligue 1 page.