Toulouse vs Strasbourg — Ligue 1: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Toulouse host Strasbourg in a Ligue 1 clash between sides level on points
Toulouse welcome Strasbourg to Stadium Municipal on Matchday 10 of Ligue 1 with little to separate the sides in the table. Both have played nine games and sit on 10 points, with Toulouse in 12th and Strasbourg one place below in 13th, the home side ahead on the standings order.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Toulouse arrive having lost 2-0 at Marseille last time out, ending a short sequence that included a 0-0 draw at home to Estac Troyes and a 3-0 win at Le Mans. Jens Askou's side have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five, keeping two clean sheets.
Strasbourg, managed by Hugo Oliveira, have lost four of their last five, with a 5-1 home win over Auxerre last time out the exception. In that run they have scored eight goals and conceded 11, and on their travels they have lost four of their last five away games.
Across their last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 2, Strasbourg won 2, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse on 3 May 2026. Strasbourg's latest win in this sample was Strasbourg 2–1 Toulouse on 16 March 2025.
Team news as of 6 November: Toulouse have Aron Dønnum (suspended) and Rafik Messali listed as out, and M. Niflore as doubtful. Strasbourg have Joaquín Panichelli listed as out, and Fábio Baldé as doubtful.
Toulouse have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five, while Strasbourg have lost four of theirs, though their 5-1 win over Auxerre came last time out.
Strasbourg have conceded 13 goals in their last five away games, while Toulouse have failed to score in three of their last five home games.
Toulouse meet Strasbourg in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 19:45 UTC at Stadium de Toulouse. Referee: Mathieu Vernice.
Team pages: Toulouse · Strasbourg · Ligue 1
Sirius · Why these numbers
Toulouse 46% · Draw 23% · Strasbourg 31%
Home advantage gives Toulouse a slight edge — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1664 to 1704, the usual home advantage puts Toulouse in front at 46%, helped by Strasbourg's recent finishing above their chances, a hot streak of a kind that tends to cool off. The draw starts near 27% for evenly matched sides but drops to 23%, lowered by both teams' high-scoring recent games and that finishing streak.
Why Toulouse in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1664 to 1704. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%). Strasbourg scored +0.79 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.7% of 1,684 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 46%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 23% and Strasbourg at 31%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Toulouse sit -0.52 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Strasbourg come into this after a busy window — 16 arrivals, 15 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Toulouse vs Strasbourg, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ligue 1 fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Toulouse and Strasbourg team pages or the Ligue 1 page.