Burnley vs 02.09.26 19:001 – 1Full Time
Middlesbrough — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsBurnley Football ClubYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow2 clips- 23′Middlesbrough, goal:0–1assist
- 28′Burnley, yellow card:Foul
- 39′Middlesbrough, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′Burnley, substitution:off
- 46′Burnley, substitution:off
- 54′Burnley, goal:1–1assist
- 61′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 61′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 71′Middlesbrough, yellow card:Foul
- 71′Burnley, substitution:off
- 74′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 77′Burnley, substitution:off
- 81′Burnley, substitution:off
- 87′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 90+1′Burnley, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 1
Lineups
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Burnley
Middlesbrough
Match report
Burnley vs Middlesbrough — the facts
Burnley and Middlesbrough drew 1–1 (half-time 0–1).
Burnley met Middlesbrough in the Championship (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Wednesday, 2 September 2026, 19:00 UTC at Turf Moor. Referee: Matt Donohue.
Team pages: Burnley · Middlesbrough · Championship
Key moments
- 23' Goal: Aidan Morris (assist: Sebastian Berhalter) — 0–1 · Watch Aidan Morris's goal video (23')
- 54' Goal: Ugo Raghouber (assist: Zeki Amdouni) — 1–1 · Watch Ugo Raghouber's goal video (54')
Starting line-ups
Burnley (4-3-2-1)
Middlesbrough (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Burnley 35%, the draw 32%, Middlesbrough 33%. It finished Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough.
Level sides, home ground holds off Middlesbrough's control of the ball — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Burnley's 35% is home ground and little else. The draw at 32% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Burnley in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1532 to 1577. Sides this close won 43.2% of 15,872 home games (draw 26.7%, visitors 30.2%).
Why only 35%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Middlesbrough hold 6 more possession points (59 to 53 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.2% across 5,564 games, from 44.0% when styles were level. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Burnley's column. Across 10,884 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 32%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,949. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Burnley have shed 97 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,696 such games vs 34.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Middlesbrough have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Burnley vs Middlesbrough final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Aidan Morris's goal against Burnley (23').
- Watch Ugo Raghouber's goal against Middlesbrough (54').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough. Explore more on the Burnley and Middlesbrough team pages or the Championship page.