Southampton vs Sat 17 Oct14:00 Scheduled
Bolton — Championship: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Southampton host Bolton in Championship matchday 11 clash
Southampton welcome Bolton in the Championship on matchday 11, with Tonda Eckert's side third in the table on 20 points from 10 games. Steven Schumacher's visitors sit 14th on 13 points from the same number of matches, leaving a gap of seven points between them.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Southampton's recent form reads four wins and one defeat from their last five, scoring 10 goals and conceding four, with two clean sheets. Their most recent game was a 1-0 win at Norwich on 14 October, following a 1-0 home win over Portsmouth three days earlier.
Bolton have won three and lost two of their last five, scoring 11 and conceding nine. They beat Wolves 3-1 away on 13 October but had lost 2-1 at home to Stoke City three days before that. Across their last five away games they have won two, drawn one and lost two, conceding 11 goals.
Team news as of 15 October: Southampton have no players listed as out or doubtful. Bolton have Chris Forino-Joseph listed as out.
Southampton have won four of their last five with two clean sheets, while Bolton have won three of five but conceded nine goals in that spell.
Both sides have faced Norwich recently: Southampton won 1-0 there on 14 October, while Bolton won 4-3 away to them on 20 September.
Southampton meet Bolton in the Championship (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at St. Mary's Stadium.
Team pages: Southampton · Bolton · Championship
Sirius · Why these numbers
Southampton 74% · Draw 17% · Bolton 9%
Strength gap makes Southampton clear favourites — Southampton sit 272 points higher on our strength rating, 1591 to 1319, so we give them 74%, though home sides in the Championship generally under-perform, which trims their edge slightly. The draw sits at 17%, the usual rate for a gap this size, with the league's draw habit lifting it and high-scoring recent games pulling it back down.
Why Southampton at 74%?
Southampton sit 272 points higher on our strength rating — 1591 to 1319. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.2% of 5,559 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 73–18–9.
Why not higher?
Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,474 games vs 44.6% across all 101,206 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw only 17%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,922. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The goals environment takes 1.6 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Southampton are unbeaten in their 5 home Championship games this season: 5 wins and 0 draws. Season's home results covered: 22 August 2026 to 11 October 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 11 October 2026 — Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth. Across 4,883 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.1%, compared with 56.1% expected from team strength.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Southampton vs Bolton, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Championship fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Southampton and Bolton team pages or the Championship page.