Derby vs Sat 17 Oct14:00 Scheduled
Stoke City — Championship: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Derby seek a first win in seven as Stoke City visit Pride Park
Derby host Stoke City at Pride Park Stadium on Championship matchday 11 with the home side sitting 23rd on six points from ten games. John Eustace's team have gone six games without a win, and their last five outings brought two draws and three defeats, including a 4-1 loss at QPR on 14 October.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Stoke City arrive eighth on 16 points from the same number of matches, with Mark Robins in charge. Their last five produced three wins, one draw and one defeat, scoring nine goals and conceding seven. The defeat was a 3-2 home loss to Middlesbrough on 13 October, three days after a 2-1 win at Bolton.
Derby's home record makes for difficult reading: from their last five games at Pride Park they have drawn two and lost three, scoring four goals and conceding nine. Stoke City, by contrast, have won two of their last five away games in the league, though they have conceded ten times in that run.
Across their last 5 meetings, Derby won 2, Stoke City won 2, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Derby 2–0 Stoke City on 6 April 2026. Stoke City's latest win in this sample was Stoke City 3–1 Derby on 9 August 2025.
Team news as of 15 October: Derby have Charles Taylor, Jacob Widell Zetterström, Matthew Clarke, Patrick Agyemang, Derry Murkin and 2 others listed as out, and 1 player as doubtful. Stoke City have Samuel Gallagher, Svante Ingelsson, Aaron Cresswell and Ato Ampah listed as out.
Derby have drawn two and lost three of their last five, while Stoke City have won three, drawn one and lost one over the same period.
Derby have failed to score in two of their last five home games, while Stoke City have scored in every one of their last five away matches.
Derby meet Stoke City in the Championship (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Pride Park Stadium. Referee: Oliver Langford.
Team pages: Derby · Stoke City · Championship
Sirius · Why these numbers
Derby 49% · Draw 25% · Stoke City 26%
Derby's control of the ball gives them a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, Derby's usual control of the ball (50 to 44 possession in recent games) is the main reason we give them 49%, alongside their home advantage. The draw sits at 25%, starting from 27% between sides this level and pulled down mainly because Stoke City's hot finishing streak tends to cool.
Why Derby in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1368 to 1375. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,820 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%). Derby hold 6 more possession points (50 to 44 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.2% of 5,142 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level. Stoke City scored +0.76 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.3% of 1,468 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 49%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,474 games vs 44.6% across all 101,206 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 25%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,180. The cool-off factor takes 2.5 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Derby have shed 62 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,601 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Stoke City have gained 63 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 39.9% of 11,197 such games vs 40.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Derby vs Stoke City, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Championship fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Derby and Stoke City team pages or the Championship page.