Birmingham vs Sat 17 Oct14:00 Scheduled
QPR — Championship: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Birmingham host QPR with fifth and sixth separated by goal difference alone
Birmingham and QPR meet at St. Andrew's Stadium on Championship matchday 11 level on 17 points from 10 games, with Birmingham fifth and QPR sixth. Chris Davies's side go into the fixture with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five, scoring ten and conceding five.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Julien Stephan's QPR arrive having not lost any of their last five in all competitions, though only one of those ended in victory: a 4-1 win over Derby, with four draws completing the sequence. They have scored eight and conceded five across that spell, keeping one clean sheet.
Birmingham's recent results include a 4-0 home win over Preston and a 1-0 success at West Brom. QPR's last five away games have brought two wins and three draws, with seven goals scored and four conceded, and one blank in front of goal.
Across their last 5 meetings, Birmingham won 2, QPR won 2, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Birmingham 1–0 QPR on 11 March 2026. QPR's latest win in this sample was QPR 2–1 Birmingham on 9 December 2025.
Team news as of 15 October: Birmingham have Paik Seung-Ho and Marc Leonard listed as out. QPR have Koki Saito, Ilias Chair, Karamoko Dembélé, Dennis Cirkin (suspended) and Tariq Lamptey listed as out, and 1 player as doubtful.
Birmingham have won three of their last five, while QPR have won one and drawn four, losing none.
Both sides have faced Derby, Preston and West Brom recently: Birmingham beat Preston 4-0 and QPR drew 2-2 with them at home, while Birmingham won at West Brom and QPR drew there 1-1.
Birmingham meet QPR in the Championship (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at St. Andrew's Stadium. Referee: Thomas Kirk.
Team pages: Birmingham · QPR · Championship
Sirius · Why these numbers
Birmingham 49% · Draw 28% · QPR 23%
Strength rating gives Birmingham a slight lean — We give Birmingham 49% mainly because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1470 to 1415, though home advantage running weak across the Championship pulls a little towards QPR. The draw sits at 28%, starting from the usual 27% for a gap this size, nudged up by the Championship's draw rate and slightly down by typical scoring.
Why Birmingham at 49%?
Birmingham sit 56 points higher on our strength rating — 1470 to 1415. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.3% of 10,393 such games.
Why only 49%?
Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,474 games vs 44.6% across all 101,206 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the QPR win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,180. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Birmingham are unbeaten in their 5 home Championship games this season: 1 win and 4 draws. Season's home results covered: 22 August 2026 to 13 October 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 13 October 2026 — Birmingham 4–0 Preston. Across 4,883 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.1%, compared with 56.1% expected from team strength.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Birmingham vs QPR, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Championship fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Birmingham and QPR team pages or the Championship page.