Match preview
Millwall host Lincoln at The Den on Championship matchday 11
Millwall welcome Lincoln to The Den in the Championship, with the hosts sitting 11th on 14 points from 10 games and their visitors 18th on 11. Alex Neil's side are seven places and three points better off than Tom Shaw's, a gap that could narrow or widen depending on how matchday 11 unfolds.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Millwall come into the fixture after a 1-0 home defeat by Swansea on 13 October, their latest game. Across their last five they have won once, drawn twice and lost twice, scoring six and conceding eight, and they have failed to score in one of those games.
Lincoln arrive in a more difficult run, having lost their last 3 games, the most recent a 6-0 home defeat by West Ham on 14 October. Over their last five they have conceded 11 goals and kept two clean sheets, but of their last five away games they have won three, with three clean sheets.
Team news as of 15 October: Millwall have Casper De Norre, Joshua Coburn, Mihailo Ivanović, Lukas Jensen, Romain Esse and 2 others listed as out. Lincoln have Mason Melia, Conor McGrandles (suspended), Thomas Hamer (suspended) and Tendayi Darikwa listed as out, and Reeco Hackett as doubtful.
Millwall have won one of their last five and Lincoln two, but Lincoln have lost their last 3 games while Millwall's most recent defeat was a 1-0 loss to Swansea.
Both sides have played Preston, Swansea and West Ham recently: Millwall drew with West Ham and lost to Swansea, while Lincoln lost to both of those opponents.
Millwall meet Lincoln in the Championship (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC at The Den. Referee: Ruebyn Ricardo.
Team pages: Millwall · Lincoln · Championship
Sirius · Why these numbers
Millwall 37% · Draw 29% · Lincoln 34%
Home advantage edges Millwall in a close one — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1470 to 1500, the usual home advantage puts Millwall slightly in front, though Lincoln's cold finishing streak pulls the other way, since streaks like this have tended to bounce back. The draw sits at 29%, up from a usual 27.1% because Championship games draw more often and that finishing streak adds a little.
Why Millwall in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1470 to 1500. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,820 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%).
Why only 37%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Lincoln sit -0.57 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 31.5% of 1,370 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,474 games vs 44.6% across all 101,206 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 29%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,180. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Out: Casper De Norre, an important player, Joshua Coburn, a rotation player, and Romain Esse, on a provisional rating. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Millwall vs Lincoln, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Championship fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Millwall and Lincoln team pages or the Championship page.