Middlesbrough vs Sat 17 Oct11:30 Scheduled
Cardiff — Championship: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Middlesbrough host Cardiff in Championship matchday 11 meeting at the Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough welcome Cardiff to the Riverside Stadium on Championship matchday 11, with the hosts second in the table on 21 points from 10 games under Kim Hellberg. Cardiff, managed by Brian Barry-Murphy, sit 19th on 10 points from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Hellberg's side arrive unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws. They scored 12 and conceded nine in that spell, and the most recent result was a 3-2 win away at Stoke City on 13 October, following a 1-0 home win over Wolves three days earlier.
Cardiff's last five brought two wins, two defeats and a draw, with 10 goals scored and six conceded. They beat Watford 5-1 at home on 13 October after losing 2-1 at Blackburn, though none of their last five away games has ended in victory: four defeats and a draw, with nine goals conceded.
Across their last 5 meetings, Middlesbrough won 4, Cardiff won 0, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Middlesbrough 1–1 Cardiff on 4 January 2025. Middlesbrough's latest win in this sample was Cardiff 0–2 Middlesbrough on 31 August 2024.
Team news as of 15 October: Middlesbrough have David Strelec, Alfie Jones and Rokas Pukštas listed as out. Cardiff have Calum Chambers and Krystian Bielik (suspended) listed as out, and Yousef Salech and Rubin Colwill as doubtful.
Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last five, while Cardiff have won two and lost two of theirs.
Both sides have faced Stoke City recently: Middlesbrough won 3-2 away there on 13 October, while Cardiff drew 1-1 with them at home on 8 September.
Middlesbrough meet Cardiff in the Championship (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC at Riverside Stadium. Referee: Tom Nield.
Team pages: Middlesbrough · Cardiff · Championship
Sirius · Why these numbers
Middlesbrough 66% · Draw 19% · Cardiff 15%
Strength gap puts Middlesbrough clearly ahead — We give Middlesbrough 66%, mainly because they sit 198 points higher on our strength rating, 1539 to 1341, while weaker home advantage across the Championship pulls slightly towards Cardiff. The draw sits at 19%, close to its usual rate for a gap this size, with high-scoring recent games for both sides lowering it and the Championship's usual draw rate raising it.
Why Middlesbrough at 66%?
Middlesbrough sit 198 points higher on our strength rating — 1539 to 1341. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.8% of 6,577 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 66–19–15.
Why only 66%?
Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,474 games vs 44.6% across all 101,206 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,922. The goals environment takes 1.8 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Cardiff have averaged 6 percentage points more possession than Middlesbrough in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their 5 home Championship games this season: 4 wins and 1 draw. Season's home results covered: 15 August 2026 to 10 October 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 10 October 2026 — Middlesbrough 1–0 Wolves. Across 4,883 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.1%, compared with 56.1% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Championship fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Middlesbrough and Cardiff team pages or the Championship page.