Southampton vs Bolton — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsSouthampton FCYouTubeMatch Events
- 41′Southampton, substitution:off
- 44′Bolton, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 46′Bolton, substitution:off
- 46′Southampton, substitution:off
- 59′Southampton, yellow card:Dissent
- 61′Bolton, substitution:off
- 61′Bolton, substitution:off
- 72′Southampton, substitution:off
- 73′Southampton, substitution:off
- 73′Bolton, substitution:off
- 76′Bolton, yellow card:Foul
- 83′Bolton, yellow card:Foul
- 85′Southampton, yellow card:Foul
- 87′Bolton, substitution:off
- 88′Bolton, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time
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Match report
Southampton and Bolton share goalless draw at St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton and Bolton finished 0-0 in a Championship matchday 11 fixture at St. Mary's Stadium, with neither side able to break the deadlock in front of referee Matt Donohue. The home side, who had won four of their last five games, were unable to extend that run against a Bolton team who had won three of their previous five.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Southampton controlled the ball, holding 62% possession to Bolton's 38%, and won five corners to three. Yet territorial dominance brought little reward: both sides had 14 shots, and Bolton, despite having less of the ball, put three of theirs on target to Southampton's two.
The contest was a niggly one, with Bolton collecting four yellow cards to Southampton's two and 17 fouls committed in total. Southampton remained fourth in the table on 21 points after the draw, while Bolton moved up to 15th on 14 points.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given the draw a 17% chance. Southampton travel to West Ham on Saturday 24 October in the Championship, a day after Bolton host Middlesbrough in the same competition.
Keven Schlotterbeck earned the highest rating of any player, 7.38, as Southampton kept a clean sheet without conceding a goal in the draw.
Southampton had 62% of the possession but managed only two shots on target, one fewer than Bolton.
Southampton and Bolton drew 0–0 (half-time 0–0).
Southampton met Bolton in the Championship (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at St. Mary's Stadium. Referee: Matt Donohue.
Team pages: Southampton · Bolton · Championship
Starting line-ups
Southampton (4-2-3-1)
Bolton (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Southampton 74%, the draw 17%, Bolton 9%. It finished Southampton 0–0 Bolton.
Southampton's strength gap drives a one-sided forecast — We give Southampton 74% mainly because they sit 272 points higher on our strength rating, 1591 to 1319, though home advantage running weak across the Championship pulls slightly towards Bolton. The draw sits at 17%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, with the Championship's higher draw rate cancelled out by both teams' high-scoring recent games.
Why Southampton at 74%?
Southampton sit 272 points higher on our strength rating — 1591 to 1319. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.2% of 5,567 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 73–18–9.
Why not higher?
Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,475 games vs 44.6% across all 101,264 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw only 17%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.3%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,940. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The goals environment takes 1.6 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Southampton are unbeaten in their 5 home Championship games this season: 5 wins and 0 draws. Season's home results covered: 22 August 2026 to 11 October 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 11 October 2026 — Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth. Across 4,883 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.1%, compared with 56.1% expected from team strength. Out: Flynn Downes, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Southampton vs Bolton final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Southampton 0–0 Bolton. Explore more on the Southampton and Bolton team pages or the Championship page.