Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Hamburger SVBorussia MönchengladbachHamburger SVBorussia MönchengladbachMatch preview
Hamburger SV look to end losing run against Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV host Borussia Mönchengladbach at the Volksparkstadion on Bundesliga matchday 9, with Merlin Polzin's side having lost their last 3 games. Hamburg sit 15th on 9 points from eight matches, while Alexander Blessin's visitors are 18th on 4 points, five behind their hosts and three places lower.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Hamburg's recent results began with a 3-2 win at 1899 Hoffenheim and a 1-0 victory over VfB Stuttgart, but they then lost 1-0 at SC Paderborn 07 and twice against Eintracht Frankfurt, 3-1 at home and then 3-1 away last time out on 1 November. Across those five matches they scored six and conceded nine.
Gladbach arrive from a mixed spell that included a 3-2 win at VfB Stuttgart, a 2-0 home win over Karlsruher SC and a goalless draw with SC Paderborn 07 on 31 October. Of their last five away games, they have won two and lost three, scoring nine goals and conceding 12.
Across their last 5 meetings, Hamburger SV won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Hamburger SV 0–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach on 17 January 2026. Hamburger SV's latest win in this sample was Hamburger SV 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach on 12 May 2018. Borussia Mönchengladbach's latest win in this sample was Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 Hamburger SV on 15 December 2017.
Team news as of 6 November: Hamburger SV have Nicolai Remberg, Mario Vušković, Bilal Nadir and Fábio Vieira listed as out, and Nicolás Capaldo and 1 other as doubtful. Borussia Mönchengladbach have Hugo Bolin, Jan Leszczyński, Enzo Leopold and Nicolas Kühn listed as out, and Moritz Nicolas and 4 others as doubtful.
Hamburg have lost three of their last five games, while Gladbach have won two and drawn one of theirs, with two clean sheets.
Both sides have faced Hoffenheim, Paderborn and Stuttgart recently: Hamburg beat Hoffenheim and Stuttgart but lost at Paderborn, whereas Gladbach lost to Hoffenheim, beat Stuttgart and drew with Paderborn.
Hamburger SV meet Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 19:30 UTC at Volksparkstadion. Referee: Sven Jablonski.
Team pages: Hamburger SV · Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Hamburger SV 40% · Draw 26% · Borussia Mönchengladbach 34%
Home advantage edges Hamburger SV in front — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, the usual home advantage gives Hamburger SV 40% to 34%, though Mönchengladbach's greater share of the ball pulls back the other way. The draw sits at 26%, just below the usual 27% for evenly matched sides, as both teams' recent games average 3.6 goals.
Why Hamburger SV in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1554 to 1577. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%).
Why only 40%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold 5 more possession points (48 to 43 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,966 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.6 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Hamburger SV sit -0.32 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Hamburger SV have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Hamburger SV and Borussia Mönchengladbach team pages or the Bundesliga page.