FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München — Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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FSV Mainz 05Bayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05Bayern MünchenMatch preview
FSV Mainz 05 seek to halt slide against league leaders Bayern München
Bundesliga matchday nine brings Bayern München to the MEWA Arena, where Urs Fischer's FSV Mainz 05 host a side managed by Vincent Kompany. Bayern sit first in the table with 18 points from eight games, while Mainz are ninth on 10, eight places and eight points behind the visitors.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Mainz arrive on a poor run. They have lost their last three games, including a 4-1 defeat at SV Elversberg last time out, and have lost four of their last five overall, with a win at FC Schalke 04 the exception. Across those five games they have scored seven goals and conceded 13.
Bayern are unbeaten in 20 games. Of their last five, they have won three and drawn two, scoring 15 goals and conceding six. Their most recent outing was a 2-0 win away at Atletico Madrid, following 2-2 draws with Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund. Mainz have lost four of their last five home games.
Across their last 5 meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 1, Bayern München won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München on 25 April 2026. FSV Mainz 05's latest win in this sample was FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Bayern München on 14 December 2024.
Mainz have lost four of their last five games, while Bayern have won three and drawn two of theirs, scoring 15 goals along the way.
Mainz have lost four of their last five home games, and Bayern have won three and drawn two of their last five away.
FSV Mainz 05 meet Bayern München in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 14:30 UTC at MEWA ARENA. Referee: Robert Schroder.
Team pages: FSV Mainz 05 · Bayern München · Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
FSV Mainz 05 13% · Draw 12% · Bayern München 75%
Bayern's big strength gap makes this one-sided — We give Bayern München 75% mainly because our strength rating has them 459 points higher, 2077 to 1617, which far outweighs the usual home advantage Mainz enjoy. The draw sits at 12%, starting from around 13% for a gap this size and nudged down because both sides' own recent games average 4.7 goals.
Why Bayern München at 75%?
Bayern München sit 459 points higher on our strength rating — 2077 to 1617. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 6,325 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 12–11–77.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 75% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 12% and FSV Mainz 05 at 13%.
Why is the draw only 12%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 12.9%. These teams' recent games average 4.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Bayern München have averaged 11 percentage points more possession than FSV Mainz 05 in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Bayern München won 4 of the last 6 meetings with FSV Mainz 05. The record is 4 wins for Bayern München, 1 draw and 1 win for FSV Mainz 05. These were 5 Bundesliga games and 1 DFB Pokal game played at both grounds between 9 March 2024 and 25 April 2026. Latest meeting: 25 April 2026 — FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München team pages or the Bundesliga page.