1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen — Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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1. FC KölnBayer Leverkusen1. FC KölnBayer LeverkusenMatch preview
1. FC Köln host Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga matchday nine
1. FC Köln welcome Bayer Leverkusen to the RheinEnergieStadion on matchday nine, with the two sides separated by seven places in the Bundesliga table. Köln are 13th on nine points from eight games, while Leverkusen sit sixth on 13, four points clear. Referee Felix Zwayer takes charge.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Rene Wagner's side arrive after a 1-1 draw at Union Berlin, their second meeting with that opponent in five days after a 5-0 home win on 27 October. In that five-game run Köln have won two, drawn two and lost once, scoring eight and conceding three, with two clean sheets.
Carles Martínez's Leverkusen come in after a 1-0 home defeat to Marseille on 5 November, their third loss in five games. They beat 1. FC Nürnberg 5-2 on 28 October but then lost 4-2 at home to VfB Stuttgart, and have conceded ten goals across that five-game spell while scoring nine.
Köln have lost only one of their last five games, whereas Leverkusen have lost three of theirs and conceded ten goals in the process.
Köln have not lost any of their last five home games, winning three and drawing two, while Leverkusen have won three of their last five away games.
1. FC Köln meet Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 14:30 UTC at RheinEnergieSTADION. Referee: Felix Zwayer.
Team pages: 1. FC Köln · Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
1. FC Köln 20% · Draw 19% · Bayer Leverkusen 61%
Leverkusen's strength gap drives a clear lead — We give Bayer Leverkusen 61% because they sit 213 points higher on our strength rating, 1779 to 1567, which outweighs the usual home advantage 1. FC Köln start with. The draw sits at 19%, starting from the usual 21% for a gap this size and nudged down slightly because both sides' own recent games average 3.3 goals.
Why Bayer Leverkusen at 61%?
Bayer Leverkusen sit 213 points higher on our strength rating — 1779 to 1567. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.5% of 7,223 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 18–19–63.
Why only 61%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 61% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 19% and 1. FC Köln at 20%.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 20.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 1.8 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
1. FC Köln come into this after a busy window — 12 arrivals and 9 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Bayer Leverkusen won 4 of the last 6 meetings with 1. FC Köln. The record is 4 wins for Bayer Leverkusen, 1 draw and 1 win for 1. FC Köln. These were 5 Bundesliga games and 1 DFB Pokal game played at both grounds between 5 May 2023 and 25 April 2026. Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in the last 5 meetings between the sides (4 wins, 1 draw), a run going back to October 2023. Latest meeting: 25 April 2026 — 1. FC Köln 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen team pages or the Bundesliga page.