VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen — Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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VfB StuttgartWerder BremenVfB StuttgartWerder BremenMatch preview
VfB Stuttgart host Werder Bremen at MHP Arena with six places between them
VfB Stuttgart welcome Werder Bremen to MHP Arena on Bundesliga matchday nine, with Sebastian Hoeneß's side eleventh on nine points from eight games. Bremen, under Daniel Thioune, sit fifth on 15 points from the same number of matches, six places and six points clear of their hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Stuttgart arrive on the back of a 2-0 defeat away to Galatasaray on 3 November. Before that they won at Bayer Leverkusen, 4-2, and at SC Paderborn 07, 1-0, either side of a 3-2 home loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach and a 1-1 home draw with Atletico Madrid.
Bremen's last outing was a 2-0 home win over 1899 Hoffenheim on 31 October, following a 3-2 defeat at Borussia Dortmund and a 3-2 win at FSV Mainz 05. Across their last five games they have won two, drawn two and lost one, scoring 11 goals and conceding nine.
Across their last 5 meetings, VfB Stuttgart won 1, Werder Bremen won 2, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Werder Bremen on 26 April 2026. VfB Stuttgart's latest win in this sample was Werder Bremen 0–4 VfB Stuttgart on 14 December 2025. Werder Bremen's latest win in this sample was VfB Stuttgart 1–2 Werder Bremen on 13 April 2025.
Bremen have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five, while Stuttgart have won two, drawn one and lost two, with both sides scoring in all but one of those games.
Both sides have faced SC Paderborn 07 recently: Stuttgart won 1-0 there on 28 October, while Bremen drew 2-2 with them at home on 17 October.
VfB Stuttgart meet Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 17:30 UTC at MHP Arena. Referee: Sören Storks.
Team pages: VfB Stuttgart · Werder Bremen · Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
VfB Stuttgart 61% · Draw 22% · Werder Bremen 17%
Stuttgart's stronger rating drives a clear lead — We give VfB Stuttgart 61% mainly because our strength rating puts them 134 points higher than Werder Bremen, and their recent cold finishing adds a little, since streaks like that have tended to bounce back. The draw starts at 25%, usual for a gap this size, and falls to 22% because both sides' recent games average 3.2 goals and that finishing streak trims it further.
Why VfB Stuttgart at 61%?
VfB Stuttgart sit 134 points higher on our strength rating — 1769 to 1634. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. VfB Stuttgart sit -0.70 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 58–21–21.
Why only 61%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 61% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 22% and Werder Bremen at 17%.
Why is the draw only 22%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
VfB Stuttgart have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Werder Bremen in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Werder Bremen scored +0.36 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen team pages or the Bundesliga page.