SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin — Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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SC FreiburgUnion BerlinSC FreiburgUnion BerlinMatch preview
SC Freiburg host Union Berlin at Europa-Park Stadion on Bundesliga matchday 9
SC Freiburg welcome Union Berlin to Europa-Park Stadion on matchday 9 of the Bundesliga, with Julian Schuster's side third in the table on 16 points from eight games. Union Berlin, managed by Mauro Lustrinelli, sit 16th on seven points, 13 places and nine points behind their hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Freiburg arrive having won their last three games. Those came against VfL Wolfsburg (3-2 at home), FC Augsburg (2-1 away) and, most recently, Trabzonspor, whom they beat 1-0 away on 5 November. Before that run they lost to Monaco and Bayern München.
Union Berlin's last five brought one win, three draws and a defeat. They drew 0-0 with Borussia Dortmund and 1-1 with FC Augsburg, lost 5-0 away to 1. FC Köln on 27 October, and drew 1-1 with Köln at home in their most recent game on 1 November. Their last five away games have produced three defeats and 19 goals conceded.
Across their last 5 meetings, SC Freiburg won 0, Union Berlin won 3, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was SC Freiburg 0–1 Union Berlin on 15 March 2026.
Freiburg have won three of their last five and Union Berlin one, with the visitors drawing three of theirs.
Freiburg have won four of their last five home games, scoring 14 goals, while Union Berlin have lost three of their last five away games.
SC Freiburg meet Union Berlin in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 16:30 UTC at Europa-Park Stadion. Referee: Sascha Stegemann.
Team pages: SC Freiburg · Union Berlin · Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
SC Freiburg 72% · Draw 16% · Union Berlin 12%
Freiburg's strength edge drives a one-sided forecast — We give SC Freiburg 72% mainly because they sit 214 points higher on our strength rating, 1766 to 1553, and they also get the usual home advantage. The draw starts near 17%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and dips to 16% because both sides' own recent games average 3.7 goals.
Why SC Freiburg at 72%?
SC Freiburg sit 214 points higher on our strength rating — 1766 to 1553. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 7,097 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 72–16–12.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 72% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 16% and Union Berlin at 12%.
Why is the draw only 16%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 16.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 1.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SC Freiburg have averaged 11 percentage points more possession than Union Berlin in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Union Berlin won 3 of the last 6 meetings with SC Freiburg. The record is 3 wins for Union Berlin, 3 draws and 0 wins for SC Freiburg. These were 6 Bundesliga games played at both grounds between 13 January 2024 and 15 March 2026. Union Berlin are unbeaten in the last 7 meetings between the sides (4 wins, 3 draws), a run going back to May 2023. Latest meeting: 15 March 2026 — SC Freiburg 0–1 Union Berlin. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the SC Freiburg and Union Berlin team pages or the Bundesliga page.