1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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1899 HoffenheimFC Schalke 041899 HoffenheimFC Schalke 04Match preview
Hoffenheim host struggling Schalke on Bundesliga matchday nine
1899 Hoffenheim welcome FC Schalke 04 to the Prezero Arena on matchday nine of the Bundesliga. The hosts sit 12th with nine points from eight games, while the visitors are 17th on six points, five places and three points behind Christian Ilzer's side.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Hoffenheim arrive on the back of a mixed week. They beat Lyon and Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 in successive home games, then drew 1-1 at Holstein Kiel, lost 2-0 at Werder Bremen and drew 1-1 at Crystal Palace last time out. In all, they have won two of their last five, drawn two and lost one.
Miron Muslić's Schalke have gone six games without a win. They have lost four of their last five and drawn the other, a 0-0 at 1. FC Köln, scoring once in the process, and they come off a 2-0 home defeat by RB Leipzig on 31 October.
Across their last 5 meetings, 1899 Hoffenheim won 4, FC Schalke 04 won 1, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was 1899 Hoffenheim 2–0 FC Schalke 04 on 9 April 2023. FC Schalke 04's latest win in this sample was FC Schalke 04 4–0 1899 Hoffenheim on 9 January 2021.
Hoffenheim have scored eight goals across their last five games, while Schalke have managed one and failed to score in four of them.
Hoffenheim have won three of their last five home games, scoring 12 goals, while Schalke have taken one win from their last five away games.
1899 Hoffenheim meet FC Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 18:30 UTC at SNP Arena. Referee: Martin Petersen.
Team pages: 1899 Hoffenheim · FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
1899 Hoffenheim 65% · Draw 19% · FC Schalke 04 16%
Strength gap puts 1899 Hoffenheim clearly ahead — We give 1899 Hoffenheim 65% mainly because our strength rating has them 184 points higher, though Schalke have scored below what their chances deserved, and cold streaks like that tend to bounce back. The draw sits at 19%, close to the usual 20% for a gap this size, nudged down slightly by that finishing streak.
Why 1899 Hoffenheim at 65%?
1899 Hoffenheim sit 184 points higher on our strength rating — 1665 to 1481. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 7,097 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 66–22–12.
Why only 65%?
FC Schalke 04 sit -0.53 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
1899 Hoffenheim have averaged 11 percentage points more possession than FC Schalke 04 in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. FC Schalke 04 are newly promoted — game 9 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Schalke 04 team pages or the Bundesliga page.