Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg — Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Borussia DortmundSV ElversbergBorussia DortmundSV ElversbergMatch preview
Borussia Dortmund host SV Elversberg on Bundesliga matchday 9
Borussia Dortmund welcome SV Elversberg to Signal Iduna Park on matchday 9 of the Bundesliga. Niko Kovač's side sit second in the table with 18 points from eight games, while Vincent Wagner's visitors are seventh on 13 points, five places and five points behind.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Dortmund arrive unbeaten in six games, a run that includes a 2-2 draw away to Bayern München and a 2-1 home win over Real Betis in their most recent outing. Across their last five they have won four, drawn one and scored ten goals, failing to score in none of them.
Elversberg's last five brought two wins and three defeats, with eight goals scored and eleven conceded. They most recently beat FSV Mainz 05 4-1 at home, having lost 4-0 away to RB Leipzig and 2-0 at home to SV Darmstadt 98 in the games before that.
Dortmund have won four and drawn one of their last five, while Elversberg have won two and lost three, conceding eleven goals along the way.
Of their last five home games Dortmund have won four and drawn one, whereas Elversberg failed to score in three of their last five away games.
Borussia Dortmund meet SV Elversberg in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 14:30 UTC at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK. Referee: Harm Osmers.
Team pages: Borussia Dortmund · SV Elversberg · Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Borussia Dortmund 79% · Draw 13% · SV Elversberg 8%
Dortmund's big strength edge drives a one-sided forecast — We give Dortmund 79% mainly because they sit 329 points higher on our strength rating, 1875 to 1547, with the usual home advantage adding to that edge. The draw starts at 14%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 13% because both sides' own recent games average 3.1 goals.
Why Borussia Dortmund at 79%?
Borussia Dortmund sit 329 points higher on our strength rating — 1875 to 1547. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.6% of 5,987 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 77–14–9.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 79% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 13% and SV Elversberg at 8%.
Why is the draw only 13%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 14.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Borussia Dortmund have averaged 5 percentage points more possession than SV Elversberg in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. SV Elversberg are newly promoted — game 9 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Borussia Dortmund and SV Elversberg team pages or the Bundesliga page.