RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg — Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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RB LeipzigFC AugsburgRB LeipzigFC AugsburgMatch preview
RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg with six places and six points between them
RB Leipzig welcome FC Augsburg to the Red Bull Arena for Matchday 9 of the Bundesliga. Martín Demichelis's side sit fourth after eight games with 15 points, while Manuel Baum's Augsburg are tenth on 9, six places and six points behind the hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Leipzig come into the match after a 3-2 home defeat by Manchester City, their most recent game, which followed three wins in a row away from home against SV Elversberg's rivals in the cup and league mix, including a 2-0 victory at FC Schalke 04. Across their last five they have won three and lost two, scoring 11 and conceding eight.
Augsburg arrive having lost 2-1 at home to SC Freiburg last time out. Their last five brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with 11 goals scored and 11 conceded, and they have not kept a clean sheet in any of those games.
Across their last 5 meetings, RB Leipzig won 3, FC Augsburg won 0, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was RB Leipzig 2–1 FC Augsburg on 7 March 2026.
Leipzig have won three of their last five and kept two clean sheets, while Augsburg have won one of theirs and have conceded in all five.
Leipzig have won four of their last five home games, conceding only three goals in that run and keeping four clean sheets.
RB Leipzig meet FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 14:30 UTC at Red Bull Arena. Referee: Daniel Schlager.
Team pages: RB Leipzig · FC Augsburg · Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
RB Leipzig 58% · Draw 23% · FC Augsburg 19%
Leipzig's stronger rating gives them a clear lead — We give RB Leipzig 58% mainly because they sit 127 points higher on our strength rating, 1765 to 1637, with the usual home advantage adding to it. The draw starts at 25%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and falls to 23% because both teams' own recent games average 4.0 goals.
Why RB Leipzig at 58%?
RB Leipzig sit 127 points higher on our strength rating — 1765 to 1637. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 58–21–21.
Why only 58%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 58% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and FC Augsburg at 19%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 4.0 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
FC Augsburg scored +0.35 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. RB Leipzig are unbeaten in their last 11 home Bundesliga games: 9 wins and 2 draws. The run began on 15 February 2026. Last recorded home league defeat: 31 January 2026 — RB Leipzig 1–2 FSV Mainz 05. Latest home league result: 24 October 2026 — RB Leipzig 4–0 SV Elversberg. Across 16,587 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 55.2%, compared with 54.2% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg team pages or the Bundesliga page.