Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa — Süper Lig: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Gaziantep FKKasımpaşaGaziantep FKKasımpaşaMatch preview
Gaziantep FK host Kasımpaşa on Süper Lig matchday 11
Gaziantep FK welcome Kasımpaşa to Gaziantep Stadyumu in the Süper Lig on matchday 11, with Orhan Ak's side 15th in the table on eight points from ten games. Emre Belözoğlu's visitors sit fifth on 17 points, nine clear of their hosts and ten places higher.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
The home side arrive on a difficult run, having lost four of their last five, the exception a 4-0 win at Etimesgut SK. They were beaten 2-0 away at Trabzonspor last time out, and have scored six and conceded ten in that stretch.
Kasımpaşa have collected three wins, a draw and a defeat from their last five. They beat Samsunspor 4-1 and Çorluspor 1947 3-1 at home, and most recently drew 2-2 with Beşiktaş. Of their last five away games, they have won three, drawn one and lost one.
Across their last 5 meetings, Gaziantep FK won 3, Kasımpaşa won 0, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Gaziantep FK 2–1 Kasımpaşa on 9 February 2026.
Team news as of 6 November: Gaziantep FK have Fuat Bavuk and Nazım Sangaré listed as out, and Kacper Tobiasz, Ulrich Meleke, Arda Kızıldağ and 3 others as doubtful. Kasımpaşa have Godfried Frimpong and Kamil Çörekçi listed as out, and Ayberk Karapo, Fousseni Diabaté, Mortadha Ben Ouanes and 1 other as doubtful.
Gaziantep FK have lost four of their last five games, while Kasımpaşa have won three and drawn one of theirs.
Gaziantep FK have not won any of their last five home games, drawing two and losing three, while Kasımpaşa have won three of their last five away.
Gaziantep FK meet Kasımpaşa in the Süper Lig (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 17:00 UTC at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
Team pages: Gaziantep FK · Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig
Sirius · Why these numbers
Gaziantep FK 35% · Draw 27% · Kasımpaşa 38%
Kasımpaşa's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — We give Kasımpaşa 38% because they sit 89 points higher on our strength rating, 1539 to 1450, though Gaziantep FK's habit of controlling the ball and their home advantage keep it close at 35%. The draw sits at 27%, just under the usual 28% for a gap this size, as both teams' recent games average 2.8 goals.
Why Kasımpaşa at 38%?
Kasımpaşa sit 89 points higher on our strength rating — 1539 to 1450. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 36–29–35.
Why only 38%?
Gaziantep FK hold 7 more possession points (50 to 43 in recent games) across a 89-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Kasımpaşa scored +0.35 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Kasımpaşa have gained 64 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Süper Lig fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa team pages or the Süper Lig page.