Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK — Süper Lig: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
Players to Watch
RizesporErzurumspor FKRizesporErzurumspor FKMatch preview
Rizespor seek a first win in six against Erzurumspor FK
Rizespor host Erzurumspor FK in the Süper Lig on matchday 11 with the home side in 13th place on 11 points from 10 games. Recep Uçar's team have gone five games without a win, and their last outing was a goalless draw away to Kocaelispor.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Erzurumspor FK arrive in 11th, on 14 points from the same number of games, so the visitors sit two places and three points ahead of their hosts. Serkan Özbalta's side won three of their last five, including a 3-1 victory at Gaziantep FK, before a 3-1 home defeat to Çorum FK last time out.
Rizespor's defensive record frames the afternoon: they have conceded 11 goals in their last five games and kept one clean sheet in that run, with Trabzonspor's 4-3 win at their ground the most recent home result before the trip to Kocaelispor.
Across their last 5 meetings, Rizespor won 1, Erzurumspor FK won 2, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Erzurumspor FK 2–0 Rizespor on 15 January 2026. Rizespor's latest win in this sample was Erzurumspor FK 0–1 Rizespor on 3 February 2019.
Rizespor are winless in their last five, with two draws and three defeats, while Erzurumspor FK won three of theirs and lost once.
Both sides have faced Çorum FK recently: Rizespor lost 2-1 away to them, and Erzurumspor FK went down 3-1 at home to them last time out.
Rizespor meet Erzurumspor FK in the Süper Lig (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Team pages: Rizespor · Erzurumspor FK · Süper Lig
Sirius · Why these numbers
Rizespor 52% · Draw 28% · Erzurumspor FK 20%
Strength rating gives Rizespor a slight lean — We give Rizespor 52% mainly because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1515 to 1446, and their habit of controlling the ball, with 53% possession to 43 in recent games, adds to that. The draw sits at 28%, starting from the usual 27% for a gap this size and nudged up 1 point by both sides' recent games averaging 2.5 goals.
Why Rizespor at 52%?
Rizespor sit 69 points higher on our strength rating — 1515 to 1446. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,130 such games. Rizespor hold 10 more possession points (53 to 43 in recent games) across a 69-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%.
Why only 52%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 52% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Erzurumspor FK at 20%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Erzurumspor FK win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Rizespor sit -0.31 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Last five: Rizespor D-L-L-L-D, Erzurumspor FK W-D-W-W-L — Erzurumspor FK are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2060 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3981 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Süper Lig fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Rizespor and Erzurumspor FK team pages or the Süper Lig page.