Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — Süper Lig: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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BeşiktaşGençlerbirliği S.K.BeşiktaşGençlerbirliği S.K.Match preview
Beşiktaş host Gençlerbirliği at Tupras Stadium in Süper Lig matchday 11
Beşiktaş welcome Gençlerbirliği to Tupras Stadium for matchday 11 of the Süper Lig, with Vincenzo Italiano's side fourth in the table on 19 points from ten games. Bernd Storck's visitors sit 14th on 11 points, eight behind and ten places lower.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Beşiktaş arrive after a mixed run in all competitions: one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five, scoring eight and conceding nine. Their latest game was a 3-2 loss away to Celtic, and before that they drew 2-2 at Kasımpaşa.
Gençlerbirliği come in on the back of two straight 5-0 home wins, over Karaköprü Belediyespor and Alanyaspor. Away from home, though, their last five have brought two wins and three defeats, with four goals scored and 11 conceded. Beşiktaş, by contrast, have won four of their last five home games and lost none.
Across their last 5 meetings, Beşiktaş won 3, Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 2, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–2 Beşiktaş on 15 March 2026. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s latest win in this sample was Beşiktaş 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 18 October 2025.
Gençlerbirliği have won their last two games by 5-0 each time, while Beşiktaş have taken one win from their last five and lost 3-2 at Celtic last time out.
Beşiktaş have failed to score in none of their last five home games, while Gençlerbirliği have failed to score in three of their last five away.
Beşiktaş meet Gençlerbirliği S.K. in the Süper Lig (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 18:00 UTC at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
Team pages: Beşiktaş · Gençlerbirliği S.K. · Süper Lig
Sirius · Why these numbers
Beşiktaş 68% · Draw 18% · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 14%
Strength gap puts Beşiktaş clearly in front — We give Beşiktaş 68% mainly because they sit 188 points higher on our strength rating, 1695 to 1507, with the usual home advantage adding to that. The draw starts near 20%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 18% because both sides' own recent games average 3.5 goals.
Why Beşiktaş at 68%?
Beşiktaş sit 188 points higher on our strength rating — 1695 to 1507. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 7,097 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 71–16–13.
Why only 68%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 68% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 18% and Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 14%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 1.7 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Beşiktaş have averaged 18 percentage points more possession than Gençlerbirliği S.K. in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Beşiktaş are unbeaten in their 5 home Süper Lig games this season: 5 wins and 0 draws. Season's home results covered: 16 August 2026 to 26 October 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 26 October 2026 — Beşiktaş 2–0 Başakşehir. Across 5,319 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.4%, compared with 56.3% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K., the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Süper Lig fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K. team pages or the Süper Lig page.