Göztepe vs Başakşehir — Süper Lig: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
Players to Watch
GöztepeBaşakşehirGöztepeBaşakşehirMatch preview
Göztepe host Başakşehir with one place and a point between them
Göztepe welcome Başakşehir in Süper Lig matchday 11 with the two sides separated by a single place. The hosts sit ninth on 15 points from ten games, while Nuri Sahin's Başakşehir are tenth on 14, so the result will settle which of them occupies the higher spot.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Göztepe arrive in the strongest run of the two. Stanimir Stoilov's side have won their last four games and are unbeaten in six, the latest victory a 2-1 success at Fenerbahçe on 31 October. Across their last five they have won four, drawn one and scored 12 goals.
Başakşehir come off a 5-2 home win against Samsunspor, though that followed a 2-0 defeat at Beşiktaş. Of their last five home games Göztepe have won two, drawn one and lost two, while Başakşehir have lost four of their last five away games, drawing the other, and scored once.
Across their last 5 meetings, Göztepe won 3, Başakşehir won 2, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Başakşehir 2–1 Göztepe on 7 March 2026. Göztepe's latest win in this sample was Göztepe 1–0 Başakşehir on 5 October 2025.
Göztepe have won four of their last five league games without losing, while Başakşehir have won three, drawn one and lost one over the same span.
Başakşehir have failed to score in four of their last five away games, whereas Göztepe's win at Fenerbahçe extended their unbeaten run to six.
Göztepe meet Başakşehir in the Süper Lig (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Team pages: Göztepe · Başakşehir · Süper Lig
Sirius · Why these numbers
Göztepe 43% · Draw 27% · Başakşehir 30%
Home advantage gives Göztepe a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, Göztepe's home advantage puts them in front at 43%, though Başakşehir's control of the ball, with 51 to 39 possession in recent games, pulls the other way. The draw sits at 27%, near the usual rate for sides this level, with high-scoring recent games lowering it slightly and Başakşehir's control nudging it back up.
Why Göztepe in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1598 to 1588. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 43%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Başakşehir hold 12 more possession points (51 to 39 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,966 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 27%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Göztepe have won their last 4 home meetings with Başakşehir. Those matches were played between 14 February 2021 and 5 October 2025, across 4 Süper Lig games. Latest home meeting: 5 October 2025 — Göztepe 1–0 Başakşehir. Before the winning run: 7 March 2020 — Göztepe 0–3 Başakşehir. Across 5,408 historical matches following at least three consecutive home wins against the same opponent, hosts won 59.4%, compared with 58.0% expected from team strength.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Göztepe vs Başakşehir, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Süper Lig fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Göztepe and Başakşehir team pages or the Süper Lig page.