RB Bragantino vs 13.10.26 00:004 – 2Full Time
Cruzeiro — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
RB Bragantino hold off Cruzeiro fightback to win six-goal contest 4-2
RB Bragantino ended a run of six games without a win by beating Cruzeiro 4-2 in a Brasileirão Série A matchday 30 fixture at Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques. The hosts, who had gone into the game without a win in their previous five league matches, produced a fast start that effectively settled the contest before half-time.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Lucas Barbosa opened the scoring in the 13th minute, set up by Eric Ramires, and Cruzeiro doubled the damage seven minutes later when Kaio Jorge turned the ball into his own net. Ramires then added a third in the 30th minute to make it 3-0. Zé Lucas pulled one back in the 43rd minute from Kaio Jorge's assist, leaving it 3-1 at the break.
Cruzeiro dominated the ball, finishing with 69% possession and 25 shots to 20, yet the visitors found only one goal in the second half until late on. Matheus Henrique made it 3-2 in the 89th minute, setting up a tense finish, but José Herrera responded within a minute, scoring in the 90+1 minute from Isidro Pitta's pass to seal a 4-2 win.
The result lifted Bragantino from 11th to ninth on 40 points, while Cruzeiro stayed sixth on 48. Both sides play away next on Sunday 18 October in Brasileirão Série A, Bragantino at Remo and Cruzeiro at Gremio.
Tiago Volpi earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 9.43, for his goalkeeping as Bragantino withstood 13 Cruzeiro shots on target. Eric Ramires contributed a goal and an assist.
Cruzeiro had 69% of the possession but still lost, with Bragantino taking their chances on only 31% of the ball.
RB Bragantino beat Cruzeiro 4–2 (half-time 3–1).
RB Bragantino met Cruzeiro in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 30). Kick-off was Tuesday, 13 October 2026, 00:00 UTC at Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques. Referee: Savio Pereira Sampaio. Attendance: 3,879.
Team pages: RB Bragantino · Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 13' Goal: Lucas Barbosa (assist: Wallace Yan) — 1–0
- 20' Goal (own goal): Kaio Jorge — 2–0
- 30' Goal: Eric Ramires — 3–0
- 43' Goal: Zé Lucas (assist: Kaio Jorge) — 3–1
- 89' Goal: Matheus Henrique — 3–2
- 90+1' Goal: José Herrera (assist: Isidro Pitta) — 4–2
Starting line-ups
RB Bragantino (4-2-3-1)
Cruzeiro (4-2-3-1)
- 81 Otávio Costa
- 27 Gabriel Rojas
- 34 Jonathan Jesus
- 43 João Marcelo
- 12 William
- 8 Gerson
- 5 Zé Lucas
- 38 Felipe Morais
- 10 Matheus Pereira
- 99 Keny Arroyo
- 19 Kaio Jorge
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave RB Bragantino 35%, the draw 31%, Cruzeiro 34%. It finished RB Bragantino 4–2 Cruzeiro.
Cruzeiro's edge cancelled out by strong home advantage — Cruzeiro sit 110 points higher on our strength rating, 1606 to 1496, but RB Bragantino's home advantage, which runs strong for all home sides in the Brasileirão Série A, pulls the chances back to 35% against 34%. The draw starts at 28%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and rises to 31% thanks to the league's usual draw rate and the two sides' typical recent scoring.
Why RB Bragantino at 35%?
Home ground, against the rating. Cruzeiro sit 110 points higher on our strength rating — 1606 to 1496. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,830 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,475 games vs 44.6% across all 101,146 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 35%?
Because Cruzeiro are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 31% and Cruzeiro at 34%.
Why the draw at 31%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,308. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Cruzeiro scored +0.32 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,831 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Cruzeiro won 3 of the last 6 meetings with RB Bragantino. The record is 3 wins for Cruzeiro, 2 draws and 1 win for RB Bragantino. These were 6 Brasileirão Série A games played between 3 September 2023 and 12 April 2026. Latest meeting: 12 April 2026 — Cruzeiro 2–1 RB Bragantino. In 5,646 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.1%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from RB Bragantino 4–2 Cruzeiro. Explore more on the RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.