Charlotte vs Sat 26 Sept23:30 Scheduled
Chicago Fire — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire — the facts
Charlotte meet Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 27). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC at Bank of America Stadium.
Team pages: Charlotte · Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
Charlotte 48% · Draw 25% · Chicago Fire 27%
Level sides, home ground swings it — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Major League Soccer home advantage gives Charlotte the lean. The draw at 25% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Charlotte in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1626 to 1594. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,717 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%). Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.2%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,189 games vs 44.9% across all 100,559 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 48%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Chicago Fire hold 6 more possession points (50 to 44 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.3% across 5,603 games, from 43.9% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 25%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,318. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Charlotte are missing 3 regular starters — David Schnegg, Ashley Westwood, Liel Abada — about 29% of their usual starting-XI weight. Our measured receipt covers one-sided absences only, and the picture here isn't one-sided — both squads are short. Last five: Charlotte W-D-W-D-W, Chicago Fire D-D-D-L-L — Charlotte are clearly the hotter side on recent results, and unbeaten in their last 8 in all competitions (5 wins, 3 draws), a run going back to August 2026. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.6% of 2215 games when clearly hotter and 42.7% of 4044 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Charlotte and Chicago Fire team pages or the Major League Soccer page.
Quick answers
›What time does Charlotte vs Chicago Fire kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC at Bank of America Stadium, a Major League Soccer fixture (matchday 27).
›Where can I watch Charlotte vs Chicago Fire goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between Charlotte and Chicago Fire?
Charlotte and Chicago Fire have met 9 times — 5 wins for Charlotte, 4 wins for Chicago Fire and 0 draws.