CF Montreal vs Sat 26 Sept23:30 Scheduled
FC Cincinnati — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati — the facts
CF Montreal meet FC Cincinnati in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 27). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC at Saputo Stadium.
Team pages: CF Montreal · FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
CF Montreal 41% · Draw 25% · FC Cincinnati 34%
Home ground outweighs FC Cincinnati's rating edge — FC Cincinnati are the stronger side on our strength rating, but Major League Soccer home advantage plus CF Montreal's cold finishing due to recover give CF Montreal the lean. The draw at 25% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why CF Montreal at 41%?
Home ground, against the rating. FC Cincinnati sit 194 points higher on our strength rating — 1401 to 1596. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,218 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.2%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,189 games vs 44.9% across all 100,559 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. CF Montreal sit -0.30 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.9% of 2,471 such games where the class table expected 36.4%.
Why only 41%?
Because FC Cincinnati are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 25% and FC Cincinnati at 34%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,318. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
FC Cincinnati scored +0.48 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,895 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. CF Montreal are missing 3 regular starters — Brayan Vera, Matthew Longstaff, Jalen Neal — about 33% of their usual starting-XI weight. Our measured receipt covers one-sided absences only, and the picture here isn't one-sided — both squads are short. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati team pages or the Major League Soccer page.
Quick answers
›What time does CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC at Saputo Stadium, a Major League Soccer fixture (matchday 27).
›Where can I watch CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati?
CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati have met 10 times — 3 wins for CF Montreal, 5 wins for FC Cincinnati and 2 draws.