DC United vs 14.10.26 23:302 – 1Full Time
New York Red Bulls — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
DC United hold off New York Red Bulls despite being outshot 24 to 4
DC United beat New York Red Bulls 2-1 at Audi Field in Major League Soccer on Matchday 29, ending a run of four games without a win. Tai Baribo gave the hosts a fifth-minute lead from the penalty spot, and the early goal shaped the evening for a side that finished with only a quarter of the possession.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Silvan Hefti doubled the lead in the 45+5 minute, applying the finish after Baribo's assist, and DC United went into the interval 2-0 ahead. The Red Bulls controlled the ball for long spells, but a team with four shots in the whole match had already put the game beyond a comfortable reach.
New York pulled one back in the 71st minute when Eric Choupo-Moting scored from Emil Forsberg's assist, and the visitors pressed hard for an equaliser. They had 24 shots and 11 corners, yet DC United, who had a red card in the match, held on to take the points.
The result lifted DC United from 26th to 22nd in the table, on 33 points from 28 games. New York Red Bulls stayed 16th on 36 points. Both sides play again on Saturday: DC United are away to Orlando City SC, while the Red Bulls host Toronto FC, both in Major League Soccer.
Baribo scored the opening penalty and set up Hefti's goal before the break, earning the highest rating of any player in the match at 8.39.
New York Red Bulls had 75% of the possession, yet DC United still won, finishing with 25%.
DC United beat New York Red Bulls 2–1 (half-time 2–0).
DC United met New York Red Bulls in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 29). Kick-off was Wednesday, 14 October 2026, 23:30 UTC at Audi Field. Referee: Guido Gonzalez.
Team pages: DC United · New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 5' Goal (penalty): Tai Baribo — 1–0
- 45+5' Goal: Silvan Hefti (assist: Tai Baribo) — 2–0
- 71' Goal: Eric Choupo-Moting (assist: Emil Forsberg) — 2–1
Starting line-ups
DC United (4-3-3)
New York Red Bulls (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave DC United 34%, the draw 32%, New York Red Bulls 34%. It finished DC United 2–1 New York Red Bulls.
Red Bulls' stronger rating balanced by home advantage — Our strength rating has New York Red Bulls 59 points higher, 1429 to 1370, but DC United's home advantage, which runs strong for home sides in Major League Soccer, pulls things level at 34% each. The draw starts at 29% for a gap this size and rises to 32%, lifted by the Red Bulls' control of the ball, a typical scoring environment and a finishing streak.
Why are DC United and New York Red Bulls level?
Home ground, against the rating. New York Red Bulls sit 59 points higher on our strength rating — 1429 to 1370. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.5% of 10,384 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,222 games vs 44.6% across all 101,177 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 34% each?
Because New York Red Bulls are the stronger side on our strength rating. New York Red Bulls sit -0.59 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 31.5% of 1,367 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally. New York Red Bulls hold 12 more possession points (49 to 37 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.8% across 5,477 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 32%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,318. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
DC United sit -0.55 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Out: Louis Munteanu, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the DC United vs New York Red Bulls final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from DC United 2–1 New York Red Bulls. Explore more on the DC United and New York Red Bulls team pages or the Major League Soccer page.