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ParmaBolognaParmaBolognaMatch preview
Parma host in-form Bologna at the Stadio Ennio Tardini on Serie A matchday 11
Parma welcome Bologna to the Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, with Alberto Gilardino's side 15th in the table on 8 points from 10 games. Raffaele Palladino's visitors are ninth on 14 points, six places and six points clear of their hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Bologna arrive with momentum: they have won their last 3 games, taking in a 4-2 win at AC Milan and a 2-1 home win over Monza. Of their last five matches they have won four, scoring 11 goals and failing to score in none.
Parma's recent weeks have been harder going. They lost to Inter, Torino and Lazio before a goalless draw with Udinese, then won 3-0 at Atalanta in their latest game. Across their last five they have won one, lost three and failed to score three times.
Across their last 5 meetings, Parma won 2, Bologna won 2, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Bologna 0–1 Parma on 8 February 2026. Bologna's latest win in this sample was Bologna 2–1 Parma on 4 December 2025.
Bologna have won four of their last five games, while Parma have won one of theirs, though that victory came at Atalanta last time out.
Both sides have faced Inter in the past month: Parma lost 3-0 away on 10 October, while Bologna lost 3-1 at home on 17 October.
Parma meet Bologna in the Serie A (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 17:00 UTC at Stadio Ennio Tardini. Referee: Luca Zufferli.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Parma 31% · Draw 29% · Bologna 40%
Bologna's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — Bologna sit 136 points higher on our strength rating, 1715 to 1579, and home sides in Serie A generally do less well than the global norm, which trims Parma's usual home advantage. The draw sits at 29%, up from a usual 28% for a gap this size, nudged higher by both teams' recent games averaging 2.5 goals and the typical Serie A draw rate.
Why Bologna at 40%?
Bologna sit 136 points higher on our strength rating — 1715 to 1579. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,869 such games. Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,181 games vs 44.6% across all 108,407 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 25–28–47.
Why only 40%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 40% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Parma at 31%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,389. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Bologna have averaged 6 percentage points more possession than Parma in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Parma are 5 games into a new manager (A. Gilardino), appointed 37 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Parma vs Bologna, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Parma and Bologna team pages or the Serie A page.