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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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NapoliLazioNapoliLazioMatch preview
Napoli host league leaders Lazio at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Serie A's matchday 11 brings Lazio to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, where Napoli, managed by Massimiliano Allegri, welcome a side sitting top of the table. Lazio, under G. Gattuso, have 28 points from 10 games, 14 more than eighth-placed Napoli, who have 14 points from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Lazio arrive on a run of six straight wins and are unbeaten in 10 games. Over their last five matches they have scored 16 goals and conceded five, with victories over Monza, Juventus, Parma, Sassuolo and Cagliari.
Napoli's recent results are mixed. They beat Bodo/Glimt 4-3 and drew 3-3 with AS Roma, then won 4-1 at Monza before losses at Juventus and FC Porto. Of their last five home games, they have won three, drawn one and lost one, keeping two clean sheets.
Across their last 5 meetings, Napoli won 1, Lazio won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Napoli 0–2 Lazio on 18 April 2026. Napoli's latest win in this sample was Lazio 0–2 Napoli on 4 January 2026.
Team news as of 6 November: Napoli have Alessandro Buongiorno listed as out. Lazio have Patric listed as out.
Lazio have won each of their last five games, while Napoli have won two, drawn one and lost two of theirs, with defeats in their last two outings.
Both sides have faced Juventus and Monza recently: Lazio beat both, while Napoli won at Monza but lost at Juventus.
Napoli meet Lazio in the Serie A (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 11:30 UTC at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Referee: Luca Pairetto.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Napoli 45% · Draw 23% · Lazio 32%
Home advantage gives Napoli a slight edge — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1764 to 1791, Napoli's usual home advantage puts them in front at 45%, helped by Lazio's recent scoring above their chances, a streak that tends to cool off. The draw starts at the usual 27% for sides this level but falls to 23%, mainly because both teams' recent games average 3.4 goals.
Why Napoli in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1764 to 1791. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%). Lazio scored +0.75 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.7% of 1,684 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 45%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,181 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw only 23%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Lazio have gained 114 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Lazio won 3 of the last 6 meetings with Napoli. The record is 3 wins for Lazio, 2 draws and 1 win for Napoli. These were 5 Serie A games and 1 Coppa Italia game played at both grounds between 28 January 2024 and 18 April 2026. Latest meeting: 18 April 2026 — Napoli 0–2 Lazio. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Napoli vs Lazio, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Napoli and Lazio team pages or the Serie A page.