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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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MonzaAtalantaMonzaAtalantaMatch preview
Monza host Atalanta with both sides short of wins in Serie A
Monza welcome Atalanta on Matchday 11 of Serie A, with Ivan Juric's side sitting 18th on seven points from ten games. They have lost their last three, most recently 2-1 at Bologna on 31 October, and before that went down 4-1 at home to Napoli.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Atalanta, managed by Maurizio Sarri, arrive 13th on 11 points, five places and four points above their hosts. Their problem is the absence of victories: they have gone five games without a win, and last time out they lost 3-0 at home to Parma.
Monza's home record offers a counterpoint to their league position. Of their last five home games they have won three, scoring 12 goals, and they have kept two clean sheets. Atalanta have lost four of their last five away games and drawn the other, scoring five times.
Across their last 5 meetings, Monza won 0, Atalanta won 5, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Monza 0–4 Atalanta on 4 May 2025.
Team news as of 6 November: Monza have no players listed as out or doubtful. Atalanta have Isak Hien listed as out.
Monza have won one of their last five games, a 4-0 home win over Cagliari, while Atalanta have drawn two and lost three of theirs, conceding 14 goals.
Monza have lost only two of their last five home games, while Atalanta have lost four of their last five away from home.
Monza meet Atalanta in the Serie A (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC at Stadio Brianteo. Referee: Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Monza 31% · Draw 24% · Atalanta 45%
Atalanta's rating edge outweighs Monza's home ground — Atalanta are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover plus a weak Serie A home advantage on top give Atalanta the lean. The draw at 24% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Atalanta at 45%?
Atalanta sit 130 points higher on our strength rating — 1677 to 1546. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. Atalanta sit -0.46 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%. Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,181 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 30–25–45.
Why only 45%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 45% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Monza at 31%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Atalanta have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Monza in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Atalanta have shed 98 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Monza vs Atalanta, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Monza and Atalanta team pages or the Serie A page.