Fiorentina vs Juventus — Serie A: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Fiorentina host Juventus with the gap between them nine places
Fiorentina welcome Juventus to the Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A on Matchday 11, with Paolo Vanoli's side sixteenth in the table on eight points from ten games. Luciano Spalletti's visitors are seventh on 17 points, a gap of nine places and nine points between the two clubs.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Fiorentina arrive on the back of a 4-2 win at Sassuolo, which came after a 2-2 draw at home to Atalanta. Before that they lost at Inter and at home to Como, and across their last five they have won one, drawn one and lost three, scoring nine goals and conceding 11.
Juventus beat Napoli 2-0 at home in their most recent game, following a 2-0 defeat at Genoa three days earlier. Over their last five they have won two, drawn one and lost two, with two clean sheets. Their away record reads two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five on the road.
Across their last 5 meetings, Fiorentina won 2, Juventus won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Juventus 0–2 Fiorentina on 17 May 2026. Juventus's latest win in this sample was Juventus 1–0 Fiorentina on 7 April 2024.
Team news as of 6 November: Fiorentina have Riccardo Sottil listed as out. Juventus have no players listed as out or doubtful.
Fiorentina have found the net in all five of their recent games but conceded 11 times, while Juventus have scored six and let in seven across their last five, keeping two clean sheets.
Both sides have played Genoa recently, Fiorentina losing 2-1 away on 10 October and Juventus losing 2-0 there on 28 October.
Fiorentina meet Juventus in the Serie A (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 19:45 UTC at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Referee: Andrea Colombo.
Team pages: Fiorentina · Juventus · Serie A
Sirius · Why these numbers
Fiorentina 32% · Draw 26% · Juventus 42%
Juventus' rating edge outweighs Fiorentina's home ground — Juventus are the stronger side on our strength rating, and a weak Serie A home advantage on top gives Juventus the lean. The draw at 26% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Juventus at 42%?
Juventus sit 141 points higher on our strength rating — 1793 to 1652. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,181 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 25–27–48.
Why only 42%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 42% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Fiorentina at 32%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Juventus have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Fiorentina in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Fiorentina have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Fiorentina vs Juventus, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Fiorentina and Juventus team pages or the Serie A page.