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VeneziaUdineseVeneziaUdineseMatch preview
Venezia host Udinese in a Serie A meeting between the bottom two
Venezia and Udinese meet at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo on Serie A Matchday 11 with the two sides separated by a single place at the foot of the table. Venezia are 20th on 3 points from 10 games, while Udinese sit 19th on 5 points, two clear of their hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Venezia, managed by Davide Nicola, have lost their last 3 games, the latest a 1-0 defeat away to Como on 1 November. Before that came a 2-0 home loss to Inter on 28 October and a 1-0 defeat at Genoa. The one win in their last five was a 1-0 home victory over Napoli on 17 October.
Udinese, under Kosta Runjaić, have gone 8 games without a win. Their last time out brought a 5-2 home defeat to AS Roma, and in their last five they have scored 3 goals while conceding 12, drawing 0-0 at Parma on 28 October in the only game that was not lost.
Across their last 5 meetings, Venezia won 1, Udinese won 4, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Udinese 2–1 Venezia on 2 September 2026. Venezia's latest win in this sample was Venezia 3–2 Udinese on 30 October 2024.
Team news as of 6 November: Venezia have Andrea Adorante, Marin Šverko and Bartol Franjić listed as out, and Thierry Correia as doubtful. Udinese have Idrissa Gueye and David Alaba listed as out, and Oumar Solet, Alessandro Zanoli and Vakoun Issouf Bayo as doubtful.
Venezia have won one of their last five and scored 2 goals in them, while Udinese have lost four of theirs and conceded 12.
Udinese have won one of their last five away games, whereas Venezia have won one of their last five at home.
Venezia meet Udinese in the Serie A (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 19:45 UTC at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo. Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Venezia 37% · Draw 29% · Udinese 34%
Home advantage edges Venezia past stronger Udinese — We give Venezia 37% to Udinese's 34% because the usual home advantage just outweighs the gap on our strength rating, where Udinese sit 1595 to 1540, though weak home advantage across Serie A narrows it. The draw holds at 29%, the usual rate for this strength gap, with a typical scoring environment and Serie A's draw rate roughly cancelling out.
Why Venezia at 37%?
Home ground, against the rating. Udinese sit 56 points higher on our strength rating — 1595 to 1540. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,151 such games.
Why only 37%?
Because Udinese are the stronger side on our strength rating. Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,181 games vs 44.6% across all 108,407 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,348.
What did we measure but not count?
Venezia sit -0.83 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Udinese have shed 84 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,432 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Venezia vs Udinese, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Venezia and Udinese team pages or the Serie A page.