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GenoaAC MilanGenoaAC MilanMatch preview
Genoa host AC Milan on Serie A Matchday 11 at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Genoa welcome AC Milan to the Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie A on Matchday 11, with Daniele De Rossi's side in 11th place on 13 points from ten games. Ruben Amorim's Milan sit fifth on 21 points, eight clear of their hosts, with the gap between the sides standing at six places.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Genoa arrive having won their last three games, the most recent a 2-1 victory away at Lecce on 1 November. Before that came home wins over Juventus (2-0) and Venezia (1-0), either side of a 2-0 defeat at AS Roma. Over their last five they have won four, scored seven and conceded four.
Milan's recent weeks have been far less settled. They beat Inter 3-1 on 31 October but followed that with a 2-0 home defeat to Ferencvarosi TC on 5 November, having lost 4-2 at home to Bologna earlier in the week. Across their last five they have won two and lost three, conceding ten goals in the process.
Across their last 5 meetings, Genoa won 0, AC Milan won 2, with 3 draws. The most recent meeting was Genoa 1–2 AC Milan on 17 May 2026.
Team news as of 6 November: Genoa have Lorenzo Venturino listed as out. AC Milan have no players listed as out or doubtful.
Genoa have won four of their last five and conceded four goals, while Milan have won two and lost three, shipping ten.
Genoa have won four of their last five home games and kept three clean sheets in that run, whereas Milan have drawn two and won two of their last five away.
Genoa meet AC Milan in the Serie A (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Referee: Davide Massa.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Genoa 32% · Draw 27% · AC Milan 41%
AC Milan's rating edge outweighs Genoa's home ground — AC Milan are the stronger side on our strength rating, and a weak Serie A home advantage on top gives AC Milan the lean. The draw at 27% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why AC Milan at 41%?
AC Milan sit 127 points higher on our strength rating — 1765 to 1638. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,181 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 25–28–47.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Genoa at 32%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
AC Milan have averaged 12 percentage points more possession than Genoa in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 8 visits to Genoa: 7 wins and 1 draw, across 8 Serie A games. Last recorded defeat there: 25 October 2016 — Genoa 3–0 AC Milan. Latest visit: 17 May 2026 — Genoa 1–2 AC Milan. Across 2,308 historical matches involving visitors unbeaten in at least five consecutive visits, those visitors won 47.3%, compared with 45.2% expected from the teams' strength ratings. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Genoa vs AC Milan, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Genoa and AC Milan team pages or the Serie A page.