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Cagliari
FrosinoneCagliariFrosinoneMatch preview
Cagliari seek an end to losing run against in-form Frosinone
Cagliari host Frosinone at the Unipol Domus on Serie A Matchday 11 with the home side sitting 12th on 13 points after ten games. They have lost their last four matches and have gone five games without a win, a slide that has seen Fabio Pisacane's team beaten by Monza, Bologna, AS Roma and, most recently, Lazio.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Frosinone arrive sixth on 20 points, six places and seven points ahead of their hosts. Massimiliano Alvini's side have won three of their last five, scoring five against Lecce and beating Torino 2-0 at home last time out, after a 4-4 draw at Atalanta.
Cagliari have scored only four goals in their last five games, failing to score in two of them, while conceding 13. Frosinone have netted 15 in the same span, though they have also let in 10.
Across their last 5 meetings, Cagliari won 2, Frosinone won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Cagliari 4–1 Frosinone on 23 September 2025. Frosinone's latest win in this sample was Frosinone 3–1 Cagliari on 21 January 2024.
Team news as of 6 November: Cagliari have Riyad Idrissi listed as out. Frosinone have no players listed as out or doubtful.
Cagliari have lost four of their last five and failed to score in two, while Frosinone have won three of five and scored 15 goals.
Cagliari have won one of their last five home games, while Frosinone have drawn three of their last five away.
Cagliari meet Frosinone in the Serie A (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC at Unipol Domus. Referee: Giovanni Ayroldi.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Cagliari 33% · Draw 25% · Frosinone 42%
Frosinone's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — We give Frosinone 42% mainly because our strength rating has them 103 points higher, 1691 to 1589, though Cagliari's recent finishing below the quality of their chances, a streak that tends to bounce back, pulls a little the other way. The draw sits at 25%, down from a usual 28% for this gap, mostly because both sides' own recent games average 3.2 goals.
Why Frosinone at 42%?
Frosinone sit 103 points higher on our strength rating — 1691 to 1589. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,869 such games. Frosinone hold 5 more possession points (47 to 42 in recent games) across a 103-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,366 such games where the class table expected 40.5%. Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,181 games vs 44.6% across all 108,407 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 32–29–39.
Why only 42%?
Cagliari sit -0.34 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 2,997 such games where the class table expected 35.6%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,729. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Frosinone scored +0.56 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,259 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Frosinone have gained 109 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,000 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Cagliari vs Frosinone, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Cagliari and Frosinone team pages or the Serie A page.