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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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AS RomaSassuoloAS RomaSassuoloMatch preview
AS Roma host struggling Sassuolo at the Stadio Olimpico in Serie A
AS Roma welcome Sassuolo to the Stadio Olimpico on Serie A matchday 11, with Gian Piero Gasperini's side third in the table on 24 points from ten games. Alberto Aquilani's visitors sit 17th on eight points, 14 places and 16 points behind their hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Roma arrive off a 3-2 defeat at Manchester United, but before that they won at Udinese and at home to Cagliari, scoring 18 goals in their last five games. Sassuolo have lost their last four matches, the most recent a 4-2 home defeat to Fiorentina, and are six games without a win.
Sassuolo have conceded 17 goals in their last five games and kept no clean sheet in that spell. Of their last five away games, they have lost four and drawn one, scoring six and conceding 12. Roma have won three of their last five home games, keeping two clean sheets.
Across their last 5 meetings, AS Roma won 4, Sassuolo won 1, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was AS Roma 2–0 Sassuolo on 10 January 2026. Sassuolo's latest win in this sample was AS Roma 3–4 Sassuolo on 12 March 2023.
Team news as of 6 November: AS Roma have no players listed as out or doubtful. Sassuolo have Ismaël Koné, Fali Candé, Daniel Boloca, Edoardo Pieragnolo and Yeferson Paz listed as out.
Roma have won three of their last five and scored 18 goals, while Sassuolo have lost four of theirs, drawing the other, and conceded 17.
Roma have kept two clean sheets in their last five home games, while Sassuolo have gone without a clean sheet in each of their last five away games.
AS Roma meet Sassuolo in the Serie A (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 19:45 UTC at Stadio Olimpico. Referee: Marco Di Bello.
Sirius · Why these numbers
AS Roma 79% · Draw 11% · Sassuolo 10%
Roma's strength gap outweighs a weak home edge — AS Roma sit 283 points higher on our strength rating, 1872 to 1590, which is why we give them 79%, though home sides in Serie A generally under-perform, which nudges a little back towards Sassuolo. The draw sits at 11%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, trimmed slightly because both teams' recent games average 4.2 goals.
Why AS Roma at 79%?
AS Roma sit 283 points higher on our strength rating — 1872 to 1590. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.6% of 5,982 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 80–11–9.
Why not higher?
Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,181 games vs 44.6% across all 108,407 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw only 11%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 11.4%. These teams' recent games average 4.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,729. The goals environment takes 1.0 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
AS Roma have averaged 6 percentage points more possession than Sassuolo in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 17 home Serie A games: 13 wins and 4 draws. The run began on 15 December 2025. It covers all 5 home Serie A games this season. Last recorded home league defeat: 30 November 2025 — AS Roma 0–1 Napoli. Latest home league result: 27 October 2026 — AS Roma 4–2 Cagliari. Across 16,578 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 55.2%, compared with 54.2% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for AS Roma vs Sassuolo, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the AS Roma and Sassuolo team pages or the Serie A page.