Birmingham vs Swansea — Championship: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Birmingham host Swansea in Championship matchday 15 level on points
Birmingham and Swansea meet on matchday 15 of the Championship with both sides on 26 points from 14 games. Chris Davies's Birmingham sit third, two places above Vitor Emanuel Soares Matos's Swansea in fifth, the gap between them coming down to nothing more than the table's ordering.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Birmingham arrive on the back of a 3-0 win over Millwall, part of a run that has brought four wins in their last five games, with 13 goals scored and only two conceded. Their one defeat in that spell came at Cardiff, 1-0, and they have kept three clean sheets.
Swansea's last five has been uneven: two wins, three defeats, six goals scored and nine conceded. They were beaten 3-1 at Portsmouth last time out, three days after a 4-0 home win over Blackburn. Of their last five away games, Swansea have lost three.
Across their last 5 meetings, Birmingham won 2, Swansea won 0, with 3 draws. The most recent meeting was Swansea 0–1 Birmingham on 8 August 2026.
Birmingham have won four of their last five games, while Swansea have won two and lost three, conceding nine goals to Birmingham's two.
Both sides have faced Millwall and QPR recently: Birmingham beat Millwall 3-0 and QPR 3-0, while Swansea won 1-0 at Millwall but lost 5-0 at QPR.
Birmingham meet Swansea in the Championship (Regular Season - 15). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
Team pages: Birmingham · Swansea · Championship
Sirius · Why these numbers
Birmingham 45% · Draw 29% · Swansea 26%
Birmingham's rating edge, trimmed by Swansea's ball control — Birmingham lead at 45% because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1512 to 1465, on top of the usual home advantage, though Swansea's habit of controlling the ball, 60 to 52 in possession, pulls the other way. The draw sits at 29%, up from a usual 27% because Championship games draw a little more often and one side's control of the ball adds to it.
Why Birmingham at 45%?
Birmingham sit 47 points higher on our strength rating — 1512 to 1465. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.2% of 11,124 such games.
Why only 45%?
Swansea hold 8 more possession points (60 to 52 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,964 games, from 44.1% when styles were level. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.3% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,523 games vs 44.6% across all 108,407 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Swansea win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,348. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Birmingham have gained 73 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,000 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 10 home Championship games: 6 wins and 4 draws. The run began on 12 April 2026. It covers all 7 home Championship games this season. Last recorded home league defeat: 3 April 2026 — Birmingham 0–1 Blackburn. Latest home league result: 3 November 2026 — Birmingham 3–0 Millwall. Across 16,578 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 55.2%, compared with 54.2% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Birmingham vs Swansea, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Championship fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Birmingham and Swansea team pages or the Championship page.