Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — Championship: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
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Charlton
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Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — the facts
Charlton meet Sheffield Utd in the Championship (Regular Season - 15). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at The Valley.
Team pages: Charlton · Sheffield Utd · Championship
Sirius · Why these numbers
Charlton 33% · Draw 29% · Sheffield Utd 38%
Sheffield Utd's stronger rating gives them a slight edge — Sheffield Utd lead mainly because our strength rating puts them 155 points higher, 1452 to 1297, though Charlton have scored less than their chances deserved and cold streaks like that have tended to bounce back. The draw sits at 29%, up from a usual 28% for this gap, lifted by the Championship's draw rate and typical scoring levels.
Why Sheffield Utd at 38%?
Sheffield Utd sit 155 points higher on our strength rating — 1452 to 1297. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.3% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,523 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 30–28–42.
Why only 38%?
Charlton sit -0.54 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Charlton have shed 94 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Last five: Charlton D-L-L-L-L, Sheffield Utd L-W-D-W-W — Sheffield Utd are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2060 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3981 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Charlton vs Sheffield Utd, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Championship fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Charlton and Sheffield Utd team pages or the Championship page.