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CardiffBurnleyCardiffBurnleyMatch preview
Cardiff host Burnley in a Championship meeting between sides in the lower half
Cardiff City Stadium stages a Matchday 15 Championship fixture in which both clubs sit in the bottom half. Cardiff are 18th on 15 points from 14 games under Brian Barry-Murphy, while Burnley, managed by Fabio Celestini, are 22nd on 10 points from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
The table puts Cardiff four places and five points above their visitors. Cardiff arrive after a 3-3 draw with West Ham in midweek, a game that followed a 3-0 defeat at Wolves on 31 October.
Burnley have gone five games without a win. Their last five outings brought three draws and two defeats, with five goals scored and nine conceded, and they come to south Wales after a 1-1 draw at QPR.
Across their last 5 meetings, Cardiff won 1, Burnley won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Burnley 1–2 Cardiff on 23 September 2025. Burnley's latest win in this sample was Cardiff 1–2 Burnley on 4 March 2025.
Cardiff have won two of their last five, scoring 11 goals, while Burnley have drawn three and lost two of theirs without a victory.
Both sides have faced Wolves recently: Cardiff lost 3-0 away on 31 October, while Burnley were beaten 2-1 at home on 16 October.
Cardiff meet Burnley in the Championship (Regular Season - 15). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Cardiff City Stadium.
Team pages: Cardiff · Burnley · Championship
Sirius · Why these numbers
Cardiff 39% · Draw 30% · Burnley 31%
Home advantage and possession edge Cardiff past Burnley — Burnley sit 75 points higher on our strength rating, but Cardiff's usual home advantage and their habit of controlling the ball, with 57% possession to 48% in recent games, give them a slight lean at 39% to 31%. The draw sits at 30%, starting from 29% for a gap this size and nudged up by the Championship's usual draw rate.
Why Cardiff at 39%?
Home ground, against the rating. Burnley sit 75 points higher on our strength rating — 1442 to 1367. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,153 such games. Cardiff hold 9 more possession points (57 to 48 in recent games) across a 75-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%.
Why only 39%?
Because Burnley are the stronger side on our strength rating. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.3% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,523 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 30%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Cardiff sit -0.34 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Cardiff are unbeaten in their 7 home Championship games this season: 3 wins and 4 draws. Season's home results covered: 17 August 2026 to 4 November 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 4 November 2026 — Cardiff 3–3 West Ham. Across 5,319 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.4%, compared with 56.3% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Cardiff vs Burnley, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Championship fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Cardiff and Burnley team pages or the Championship page.