Portsmouth vs Stoke City — Championship: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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PortsmouthStoke CityPortsmouthStoke CityMatch preview
Portsmouth host Stoke City at Fratton Park in Championship matchday 15
Portsmouth welcome Stoke City to Fratton Park in the Championship, with John Mousinho's side tenth in the table on 22 points from 14 games. Mark Robins brings a Stoke side fourth on 26 points, four ahead of their hosts and six places higher.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Portsmouth arrive unbeaten in six games. Their last outing was a 3-1 home win over Swansea, and before that came a goalless draw at Burnley. Across their last five they have won three and drawn two, scoring seven and conceding three.
Stoke have taken a different route to their position, winning three of their last five, with a 2-1 victory at Blackburn their most recent result. Of their last five away games, they have won four and drawn one, scoring eight goals and conceding four.
Across their last 4 meetings, Portsmouth won 2, Stoke City won 2, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Stoke City 1–3 Portsmouth on 25 April 2026. Stoke City's latest win in this sample was Portsmouth 0–1 Stoke City on 25 October 2025.
Portsmouth have won three and drawn two of their last five without defeat, while Stoke have won three, drawn one and lost one, that defeat a 3-2 home loss to Middlesbrough.
Portsmouth have won four and drawn one of their last five home games, scoring 12 goals, while Stoke have won four and drawn one of their last five away.
Portsmouth meet Stoke City in the Championship (Regular Season - 15). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 12:30 UTC at Fratton Park.
Team pages: Portsmouth · Stoke City · Championship
Sirius · Why these numbers
Portsmouth 46% · Draw 28% · Stoke City 26%
Level sides, Stoke City's hot finishing due to cool swings it Portsmouth's way — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Stoke City's hot finishing due to cool gives Portsmouth the lean. The draw at 28% is what level sides usually produce.
Why Portsmouth in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1443 to 1408. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%). Stoke City scored +0.64 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.7% of 1,684 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 46%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.3% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,523 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Stoke City win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The cool-off factor takes 2.3 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Portsmouth have gained 77 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Stoke City have gained 86 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Portsmouth vs Stoke City, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Championship fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Portsmouth and Stoke City team pages or the Championship page.