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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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DerbyBoltonDerbyBoltonMatch preview
Derby seek a first win in 11 games as Bolton visit Pride Park
Derby host Bolton at Pride Park Stadium on Championship matchday 15 with John Eustace's side second from bottom in 23rd place on seven points from 14 games. They have gone 10 games without a win, and their most recent outing was a 4-0 home defeat to Norwich on 3 November.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Bolton, managed by Steven Schumacher, sit 17th on 17 points, ten more than Derby and six places higher in the table. Their recent form has been uneven: wins at Wolves and Charlton either side of a goalless draw at Southampton and home defeats to Middlesbrough and Bristol City.
Derby have lost four of their last five and failed to score twice in that spell, conceding 14 goals while netting three. Bolton have won twice and lost twice in their last five, scoring seven and conceding nine, and kept clean sheets in two of those five games.
Across their last 5 meetings, Derby won 4, Bolton won 1, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Derby 4–0 Bolton on 13 April 2019. Bolton's latest win in this sample was Bolton 1–0 Derby on 29 September 2018.
Team news as of 6 November: Derby have Charlie Taylor, Sondre Langås, Matthew Clarke, Derry Murkin, Patrick Agyemang and 2 others listed as out, and 1 player as doubtful. Bolton have Jayden Nelson, Ryan Hardie, Ethan Erhahon, John McAtee and Eoin Toal listed as out, and 1 player as doubtful.
Derby have lost four of their last five with no win, while Bolton have won two, drawn one and lost two of theirs.
Bolton have won three of their last five away games, while Derby have lost four of their last five at Pride Park without a win.
Derby meet Bolton in the Championship (Regular Season - 15). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 20:00 UTC at Pride Park Stadium. Referee: James Bell.
Team pages: Derby · Bolton · Championship
Sirius · Why these numbers
Derby 46% · Draw 26% · Bolton 28%
Home advantage gives Derby a slight edge — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, Derby's usual home advantage puts them in front at 46%, though home sides in the Championship tend to under-perform, which trims that edge. The draw sits at 26%, below its 27.5% starting point, because both teams' recent games average 3.2 goals, partly offset by the Championship's usual draw rate.
Why Derby in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1327 to 1317. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 46%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.3% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,523 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Derby sit -0.39 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Derby have shed 82 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Derby vs Bolton, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Championship fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Derby and Bolton team pages or the Championship page.