Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — FA Cup: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
Players to Watch
Milton Keynes DonsSwindon TownMilton Keynes DonsSwindon TownMatch preview
Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — the facts
Milton Keynes Dons meet Swindon Town in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Stadium MK.
Team pages: Milton Keynes Dons · Swindon Town · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Milton Keynes Dons 52% · Draw 24% · Swindon Town 24%
Strength rating gives Milton Keynes Dons a slight lean — We give Milton Keynes Dons 52% mainly because they sit 80 points higher on our strength rating, 1308 to 1229, with the usual home advantage adding to that edge. The draw starts at 27%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 24% because both sides' own recent games average 4.0 goals.
Why Milton Keynes Dons at 52%?
Milton Keynes Dons sit 80 points higher on our strength rating — 1308 to 1229. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,130 such games.
Why only 52%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 52% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Swindon Town at 24%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 4.0 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Swindon Town arrive with 18 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Milton Keynes Dons bring a 73-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town team pages or the FA Cup page.