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AFC WimbledonCreweAFC WimbledonMatch preview
Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon — the facts
Crewe meet AFC Wimbledon in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Alexandra Stadium.
Team pages: Crewe · AFC Wimbledon · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Crewe 32% · Draw 29% · AFC Wimbledon 39%
AFC Wimbledon's stronger rating gives them a slight edge — AFC Wimbledon sit 108 points higher on our strength rating, 1345 to 1237, which is enough to give them 39% even though Crewe enjoy the usual home advantage. The draw sits at 29%, starting from the usual rate for a gap this size and nudged up slightly because both sides' recent games average 2.7 goals.
Why AFC Wimbledon at 39%?
AFC Wimbledon sit 108 points higher on our strength rating — 1345 to 1237. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 34–30–36.
Why only 39%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 39% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Crewe at 32%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Crewe arrive with 22 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; AFC Wimbledon bring a 28-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Crewe and AFC Wimbledon team pages or the FA Cup page.