Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Houston DynamoSt. Louis CityHouston DynamoSt. Louis CityMatch preview
Houston Dynamo host St. Louis City with both sides level on 51 points
Houston Dynamo welcome St. Louis City to BBVA Compass Stadium on Matchday 34 of Major League Soccer, with the two sides separated by a single place and nothing else. Both have played 33 games and both sit on 51 points; St. Louis City are ninth, Houston tenth.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Houston arrive after a 3-1 defeat at Portland Timbers last time out, which followed a 1-0 win at Seattle Sounders. In their last five they have drawn three, won one and lost one, scoring seven goals and conceding eight, with two clean sheets.
St. Louis City come in on a poor run: they have lost their last three games and have gone six without a win. They lost 1-0 at home to San Diego last time out, and across their last five they have failed to score three times, finding the net four times while conceding ten.
Houston have drawn three of their last five and lost only one, while St. Louis City have lost four of theirs without a win.
Both sides have faced Portland Timbers recently: Houston lost 3-1 there on 2 November, and St. Louis City lost 3-2 at home to the same opponents on 29 October.
Houston Dynamo meet St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 00:00 UTC at Shell Energy Stadium. Referee: Allen Chapman.
Team pages: Houston Dynamo · St. Louis City · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
Houston Dynamo 41% · Draw 27% · St. Louis City 32%
Home edge outweighs St. Louis City's stronger rating — St. Louis City sit higher on our strength rating, 1530 to 1474, but Houston Dynamo lead at 41% thanks to their home advantage, which runs strong for all home sides in Major League Soccer. The draw starts at 29%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and finishing streaks nudge it down to 27%.
Why Houston Dynamo at 41%?
Home ground, against the rating. St. Louis City sit 56 points higher on our strength rating — 1530 to 1474. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,153 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,297 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. St. Louis City scored +0.46 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.7% of 1,684 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 41%?
Because St. Louis City are the stronger side on our strength rating. St. Louis City hold 5 more possession points (55 to 50 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,966 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360. The cool-off factor takes 2.3 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Houston Dynamo scored +0.34 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,690 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing. Last five: Houston Dynamo D-D-D-W-L, St. Louis City L-D-L-L-L — Houston Dynamo are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2060 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3981 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City team pages or the Major League Soccer page.