Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Philadelphia Union host Toronto FC on Major League Soccer Matchday 34
Philadelphia Union welcome Toronto FC to Talen Energy Stadium on Matchday 34 of Major League Soccer, with the two sides separated by 13 places in the table. The Union are 11th on 47 points from 33 games, while Toronto are 24th on 39 points, eight behind and from the same number of fixtures.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Ryan Richter's Union come in without a win in their last four, having drawn twice and lost twice in that spell. Their most recent outing was a 1-0 defeat away to FC Cincinnati, a game in which they failed to score, as in one other of their last five league outings.
Robin Fraser's Toronto have lost their last two, going down 4-2 at Columbus Crew and then 3-1 at Atlanta United FC on 1 November. Across their last five they have scored 10 goals and conceded 11, with a 2-1 home win over DC United the highlight of that run.
Across their last 5 meetings, Philadelphia Union won 1, Toronto FC won 1, with 3 draws. The most recent meeting was Toronto FC 3–3 Philadelphia Union on 22 April 2026. Philadelphia Union's latest win in this sample was Toronto FC 1–2 Philadelphia Union on 28 May 2025. Toronto FC's latest win in this sample was Toronto FC 2–1 Philadelphia Union on 13 July 2024.
Philadelphia have won one of their last five, drawing two and losing two, while Toronto have won two and lost two with one draw.
Philadelphia have won three of their last five home games, scoring 14 goals, while Toronto have lost four of their last five away from home, conceding 12.
Philadelphia Union meet Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 21:00 UTC at Subaru Park. Referee: Timothy Ford.
Team pages: Philadelphia Union · Toronto FC · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
Philadelphia Union 63% · Draw 23% · Toronto FC 14%
Strength gap puts Philadelphia Union clearly ahead — We give Philadelphia Union 63% mainly because they sit 141 points higher on our strength rating, 1570 to 1429, and home sides in Major League Soccer tend to do better than the global norm. The draw starts at the usual 25% for a gap this size, then drops to 23% because both teams' recent games average 3.7 goals.
Why Philadelphia Union at 63%?
Philadelphia Union sit 141 points higher on our strength rating — 1570 to 1429. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,297 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 59–26–15.
Why only 63%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 63% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and Toronto FC at 14%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Philadelphia Union scored +0.46 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Toronto FC scored +0.46 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.