New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
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New York Red Bulls host Atlanta United on Matchday 34 in Major League Soccer
New York Red Bulls welcome Atlanta United FC to Sports Illustrated Stadium for Matchday 34 of Major League Soccer, with Pierre-Luc Lauziere the referee. Both sides have played 33 games and sit in the lower reaches of the table, the Red Bulls 22nd on 39 points.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Atlanta, managed by Gerardo Martino, are 27th on 33 points, five places and six points behind their hosts. Their last five games brought two wins and three defeats, with 10 goals scored and nine conceded, the latest result a 3-1 home win over Toronto FC on 1 November.
The Red Bulls arrive on a difficult run, having lost four of their last five. The one win in that spell was a 2-0 home victory over Inter Miami on 24 October, and their last game ended in a 3-2 defeat away to Nashville SC.
Across their last 5 meetings, New York Red Bulls won 1, Atlanta United FC won 2, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls on 15 August 2026. New York Red Bulls's latest win in this sample was New York Red Bulls 2–0 Atlanta United FC on 31 May 2025.
Atlanta have won two of their last five against four defeats in five for the Red Bulls, who scored seven and conceded 10 over the same spell.
Both sides have faced Inter Miami and Toronto FC recently: the Red Bulls beat Inter Miami 2-0 and lost 2-0 to Toronto, while Atlanta lost 3-1 to Inter Miami and beat Toronto 3-1.
New York Red Bulls meet Atlanta United FC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 21:00 UTC at Sports Illustrated Stadium. Referee: Pierre-Luc Lauziere.
Team pages: New York Red Bulls · Atlanta United FC · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
New York Red Bulls 46% · Draw 27% · Atlanta United FC 27%
Home advantage gives Red Bulls a slight lean — Our strength rating has the sides almost level, so New York Red Bulls lead mainly through home advantage, which runs strong for home sides across Major League Soccer, while Atlanta United FC's cold finishing streak pulls the other way. The draw sits at 27%, near its usual 27.5% for sides this level, with small nudges either way.
Why New York Red Bulls in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1412 to 1395. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%). Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,297 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 46%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Atlanta United FC sit -0.38 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.0% of 1,696 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why is the draw second, level with the Atlanta United FC win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
New York Red Bulls sit -0.85 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Atlanta United FC are winless in their last 9 visits to New York Red Bulls: 3 draws and 6 defeats, across 9 Major League Soccer games. No earlier win in this fixture appears in our recorded visits. Latest visit: 31 May 2025 — New York Red Bulls 2–0 Atlanta United FC. Across 6,359 historical matches involving visitors with at least five consecutive winless visits, those visitors won 20.3%, compared with 21.4% expected from the teams' strength ratings.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.