Austin vs Portland Timbers — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Players to Watch
Austin
Portland TimbersAustinPortland TimbersMatch preview
Austin host Portland Timbers on Matchday 34 of Major League Soccer
Austin welcome Portland Timbers to Q2 Stadium for Matchday 34 of Major League Soccer, with Davy Arnaud's side 26th in the table on 34 points from 33 games. Martí Cifuentes' Portland are 16th on 43 points, nine clear of their hosts and ten places higher.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Austin arrive having lost four of their last five, the exception being a 2-1 win at Sporting Kansas City. Their most recent outing ended in a 4-1 defeat away to Los Angeles Galaxy, and they conceded 12 goals across that five-game spell while scoring six.
Portland have won their last 3 games, beating Charlotte 3-2, St. Louis City 3-2 away and Houston Dynamo 3-1 at home last time out. Austin's last five home games brought two draws and three defeats, without a win.
Across their last 5 meetings, Austin won 2, Portland Timbers won 2, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Portland Timbers 1–2 Austin on 30 August 2026. Portland Timbers's latest win in this sample was Portland Timbers 1–0 Austin on 2 March 2025.
Portland have won three of their last five and scored nine goals, while Austin have won one of theirs and conceded 12.
Both sides have played Los Angeles Galaxy recently: Portland lost 2-0 at the Galaxy on 15 October, while Austin were beaten 4-1 there on 31 October.
Austin meet Portland Timbers in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 00:00 UTC at Q2 Stadium. Referee: Victor Rivas.
Team pages: Austin · Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
Austin 44% · Draw 27% · Portland Timbers 29%
Home advantage outweighs Portland's higher rating — Portland Timbers sit 80 points higher on our strength rating, but Austin get the usual home advantage, and home sides in Major League Soccer out-perform the global norm, so we give Austin 44%. The draw starts at 29%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 27% because both teams' own recent games average 3.4 goals.
Why Austin at 44%?
Home ground, against the rating. Portland Timbers sit 80 points higher on our strength rating — 1480 to 1400. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,153 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,297 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 44%?
Because Portland Timbers are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 27% and Portland Timbers at 29%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Last five: Austin L-L-W-L-L, Portland Timbers L-D-W-W-W — Portland Timbers are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2060 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3981 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Austin vs Portland Timbers, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Austin and Portland Timbers team pages or the Major League Soccer page.