Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Minnesota United FCSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FCSan Jose EarthquakesMatch preview
Minnesota United FC host San Jose Earthquakes on Matchday 34 in MLS
Minnesota United FC welcome San Jose Earthquakes to Allianz Field on Matchday 34 of Major League Soccer, with Cameron Knowles' side 21st in the table on 41 points from 33 games. Bruce Arena's visitors sit eighth on 52 points, 13 places and 11 points ahead of the hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Minnesota arrive unbeaten in six games, a run that includes a 3-1 home win over Sporting Kansas City and, most recently, a 3-1 victory away to Los Angeles FC. Across their last five games they have won three and drawn two, scoring 11 goals and keeping one clean sheet.
San Jose's last five brought one win, three draws and one defeat, with 6 goals scored and 8 conceded. They beat Real Salt Lake 2-1 in their latest game, having drawn 2-2 with Colorado Rapids two games earlier, the same opponent Minnesota drew 2-2 with away from home on 15 October.
Across their last 5 meetings, Minnesota United FC won 4, San Jose Earthquakes won 1, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was San Jose Earthquakes 1–5 Minnesota United FC on 23 August 2026. San Jose Earthquakes's latest win in this sample was San Jose Earthquakes 4–2 Minnesota United FC on 29 April 2026.
Minnesota have won three and drawn two of their last five, while San Jose have won one, drawn three and lost one.
Both sides have drawn 2-2 with Colorado Rapids in the last month, Minnesota away from home on 15 October and San Jose at home on 29 October.
Minnesota United FC meet San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 00:00 UTC at Allianz Field. Referee: Alexis Da Silva.
Team pages: Minnesota United FC · San Jose Earthquakes · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
Minnesota United FC 52% · Draw 24% · San Jose Earthquakes 24%
Home advantage gives Minnesota a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1487 to 1479, home advantage puts Minnesota United FC in front at 52%, and it runs strong across Major League Soccer. The draw starts at the usual 27.5% for sides this level but falls to 24%, mainly because both teams' recent games average 3.5 goals.
Why Minnesota United FC in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1487 to 1479. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%). Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,297 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 52%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 24% and San Jose Earthquakes at 24%.
Why the draw at 24%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Minnesota United FC scored +0.47 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,690 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing. Minnesota United FC won 5 of the last 6 meetings with San Jose Earthquakes. The record is 5 wins for Minnesota United FC, 0 draws and 1 win for San Jose Earthquakes. These were 5 Major League Soccer games and 1 US Open Cup game played at both grounds between 21 July 2024 and 23 August 2026. Latest meeting: 23 August 2026 — San Jose Earthquakes 1–5 Minnesota United FC. In 5,573 historical matches between similarly rated teams, home sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 44.0%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes team pages or the Major League Soccer page.