Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
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Chicago Fire
Columbus CrewChicago FireColumbus CrewMatch preview
Chicago Fire host Columbus Crew on Matchday 34 of Major League Soccer
Chicago Fire welcome Columbus Crew to SeatGeek Stadium on Matchday 34 in Major League Soccer, with Gregg Berhalter's side fifth in the table on 55 points from 33 games. Their latest result was a 4-2 away win at Colorado Rapids on 1 November, and across their last five they have won two, drawn one and lost two.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Columbus, managed by L. Courtois, arrive in 14th place on 44 points, 11 behind the hosts and nine places lower. Form is where they have the edge: they have won their last three games and are unbeaten in six, and they have lost none of their last five, scoring 11 goals and conceding two.
Defensive record separates the sides. Columbus have kept four clean sheets in their last five, while Chicago have conceded 10 goals in the same span without a shutout. Chicago's last five at home read two wins, one draw and two defeats, with nine goals scored and nine conceded.
Across their last 5 meetings, Chicago Fire won 1, Columbus Crew won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Columbus Crew 0–0 Chicago Fire on 8 March 2026. Chicago Fire's latest win in this sample was Chicago Fire 2–0 Columbus Crew on 28 September 2025. Columbus Crew's latest win in this sample was Columbus Crew 4–2 Chicago Fire on 23 February 2025.
Columbus have won four and drawn one of their last five, while Chicago have won two, drawn one and lost two.
Columbus have kept clean sheets in three of their last five away games, while Chicago have yet to keep one in their last five at home.
Chicago Fire meet Columbus Crew in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 21:00 UTC at SeatGeek Stadium. Referee: Rosendo Mendoza.
Team pages: Chicago Fire · Columbus Crew · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
Chicago Fire 51% · Draw 22% · Columbus Crew 27%
Strong home advantage in Major League Soccer edges Chicago — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, the home advantage that runs strong across Major League Soccer puts Chicago Fire in front at 51%, helped by Columbus Crew's recent finishing streak, which tends to cool off. The draw starts at 27% but drops to 22%, lowered by both teams' high-scoring recent games and that finishing streak.
Why Chicago Fire in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1546 to 1561. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%). Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,297 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Columbus Crew scored +0.45 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.7% of 1,684 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 51%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 22% and Columbus Crew at 27%.
Why is the draw only 22%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Columbus Crew have gained 112 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Columbus Crew won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Chicago Fire. The record is 4 wins for Columbus Crew, 1 draw and 1 win for Chicago Fire. These were 6 Major League Soccer games played at both grounds between 20 September 2023 and 8 March 2026. Latest meeting: 8 March 2026 — Columbus Crew 0–0 Chicago Fire. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Chicago Fire and Columbus Crew team pages or the Major League Soccer page.