Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Orlando City SCNew England RevolutionOrlando City SCNew England RevolutionMatch preview
Orlando City SC host fourth-placed New England Revolution on Matchday 34
Orlando City SC welcome New England Revolution to Exploria Stadium on Matchday 34 of Major League Soccer, with the two sides separated by 14 places in the table. Martín Perelman's team sit 18th on 43 points from 33 games, while Marko Mićović's visitors are fourth on 58, 15 points clear.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Orlando arrive on the back of a 4-0 defeat away to Charlotte on 31 October, their only loss in a five-game run that also contains three draws and one win. Across those games they have scored 11 goals and conceded 12, including a 4-1 home victory over DC United and a 2-2 draw at Chicago Fire.
New England won four of their last five, scoring 10 and conceding seven, before a 2-1 home defeat to Inter Miami on 2 November. Their previous four results included wins at FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union. In their last five away games they have won four, with a single loss and nine goals scored.
Across their last 5 meetings, Orlando City SC won 3, New England Revolution won 1, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was New England Revolution 4–2 Orlando City SC on 19 September 2026. Orlando City SC's latest win in this sample was New England Revolution 3–4 Orlando City SC on 29 April 2026.
Orlando have drawn three and won one of their last five, while New England have won four and lost one, scoring 10 goals to Orlando's 11 but conceding five fewer.
Both sides have faced Chicago Fire this month: Orlando drew 2-2 away, while New England beat them 1-0 at home on 17 October.
Orlando City SC meet New England Revolution in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 21:00 UTC at Inter.co Stadium. Referee: Guido Gonzalez.
Team pages: Orlando City SC · New England Revolution · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
Orlando City SC 53% · Draw 23% · New England Revolution 24%
Strong home advantage in Major League Soccer edges Orlando — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, Orlando City SC lead mainly because home sides in Major League Soccer do better than the global norm, helped by their habit of controlling the ball (54 to 48 in possession). The draw drops from a usual 27% to 23%, mostly because both teams' own recent games average 4.0 goals.
Why Orlando City SC in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1486 to 1488. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%). Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,297 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Orlando City SC hold 6 more possession points (54 to 48 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.5% of 5,647 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 53%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 23% and New England Revolution at 24%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 4.0 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Orlando City SC scored +0.86 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,690 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing. Orlando City SC are 7 games into a new manager (M. Perelman), appointed 41 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Orlando City SC and New England Revolution team pages or the Major League Soccer page.