Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II — Segunda División: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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BurgosCelta de Vigo IIBurgosCelta de Vigo IIMatch preview
Burgos host Celta de Vigo II in Segunda División matchday 13
Burgos welcome Celta de Vigo II in matchday 13 of the Segunda División, with Sergio Francisco's side eighth in the table on 21 points from 12 games. Fredi's visitors sit 16th on 13 points from the same number of matches, a gap of eight places and eight points between the sides.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Burgos arrive having won three of their last five, scoring nine goals and conceding six. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw at home to Castellón, preceded by away wins at FC Andorra and Laredo, where they scored two goals each time.
Celta de Vigo II have won one of their last five, drawing two and losing two. They conceded five at Girona before sharing a 2-2 draw with Cordoba last time out, a run in which they have scored ten and let in 12 without a clean sheet.
Burgos have won three of their last five, while Celta de Vigo II have won one, drawn two and lost two in the same span.
Burgos have won three of their last five home games, whereas Celta de Vigo II have lost three of their last five away from home.
Burgos meet Celta de Vigo II in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 13). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 13:00 UTC at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío.
Team pages: Burgos · Celta de Vigo II · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Burgos 57% · Draw 24% · Celta de Vigo II 19%
Strength gap puts Burgos clearly in front — Burgos sit 123 points higher on our strength rating, 1558 to 1435, and with the usual home advantage on top we give them 57%. The draw starts at 25%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and dips slightly to 24% because both sides' own recent games average 3.0 goals.
Why Burgos at 57%?
Burgos sit 123 points higher on our strength rating — 1558 to 1435. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 54–25–21.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Celta de Vigo II at 19%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Celta de Vigo II scored +0.36 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Last five: Burgos L-W-W-W-D, Celta de Vigo II L-W-D-L-D — Burgos are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2060 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3981 when clearly colder. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Burgos and Celta de Vigo II team pages or the Segunda División page.