Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II — Segunda División: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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SabadellReal Sociedad IISabadellReal Sociedad IIMatch preview
Sabadell host Real Sociedad II on Segunda División Matchday 13
Sabadell welcome Real Sociedad II to the Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta on Matchday 13 of the Segunda División. The hosts, managed by Ferran Costa, sit tenth with 17 points from 12 games, while Ion Ansotegi's visitors are 19th on 11 points from the same number of matches, nine places and six points behind.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Sabadell's last five league outings brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with four goals scored and five conceded. They were beaten 2-1 at Albacete last time out. Real Sociedad II have lost four of their last five, conceding 12 goals in that stretch, though they ended it with a 1-0 home win over Girona.
At the Nova Creu Alta, Sabadell have not lost in their last five home games, winning three and drawing two, with two clean sheets. Real Sociedad II's last five away games brought one win, one draw and three defeats, with 11 goals conceded.
Sabadell have taken one win from their last five league games, while Real Sociedad II have lost four of theirs and won once, against Girona on 31 October.
Sabadell are unbeaten in their last five home games, whereas Real Sociedad II have lost three of their last five on the road.
Sabadell meet Real Sociedad II in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 13). Kick-off is Monday, 9 November 2026, 19:30 UTC at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta.
Team pages: Sabadell · Real Sociedad II · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Sabadell 51% · Draw 26% · Real Sociedad II 23%
Strength rating gives Sabadell a slight lean — We give Sabadell 51% mainly because they sit 65 points higher on our strength rating, 1448 to 1383, and they also get the usual home advantage. The draw sits at 26%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged slightly lower because both teams' own recent games average 2.8 goals.
Why Sabadell at 51%?
Sabadell sit 65 points higher on our strength rating — 1448 to 1383. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,130 such games.
Why only 51%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 51% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Real Sociedad II at 23%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Sabadell sit -0.37 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Sabadell are unbeaten in their 5 home Segunda División games this season: 3 wins and 2 draws. Season's home results covered: 29 August 2026 to 25 October 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 25 October 2026 — Sabadell 1–1 Tenerife. Across 5,319 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.4%, compared with 56.3% expected from team strength.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Sabadell and Real Sociedad II team pages or the Segunda División page.